Strategy Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Strategy MSTR is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $119.6 million, indicating a 0.91% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus earnings mark is pegged at $46.02 per share, which has remained unchanged over the past 30 days. This figure represents a sharp improvement from a loss of $3.20 per share reported in the year-ago period.

In the trailing four quarters, the company delivered an impressive average earnings surprise of 6,210.41%.

Earnings Whispers for MSTR Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Strategy this time. Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you can see below.

Strategy has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% at present and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors to Note Ahead of MSTR’s Q4 Results

Strategy’s fourth-quarter 2025 performance is expected to have benefited from sustained financial momentum supported by robust Bitcoin-driven earnings and disciplined capital deployment. Following a second consecutive quarter of solid profitability and the reaffirmation of ambitious full-year guidance tied to elevated Bitcoin prices, the company entered the fourth quarter with improved earnings visibility. By the end of January 2026, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings had risen to approximately 712,647 BTC from 640,808 as of Oct. 26, 2025, further strengthening its exposure to favorable price movements. The continued expansion of digital asset holdings, coupled with fair value accounting treatment, positions the company for higher income generation in the quarter under review.

The continued growth of Strategy’s preferred securities platform, comprising STRC, STRF, STRK and STRD, supported capital inflows driven by attractive, tax-efficient dividend structures. Dividend enhancements and wider distribution reach provided additional resources for value-accretive Bitcoin purchases while reducing reliance on convertible financing. Management’s plans for international issuance further expanded the investor base. This strengthened funding structure is expected to have provided a positive tailwind for the company in the to-be-reported quarter.

Strategy’s first-ever S&P credit rating marked a key milestone that expanded access to significantly larger pools of institutional capital. Prospective inclusion in major indices further amplified market visibility and investor confidence. These developments strengthened liquidity and reduced structural financing risk, supporting continued Bitcoin accumulation. This improved capital market positioning is expected to have favorably influenced financial performance and valuation during the fourth quarter of 2025.

However, Strategy’s core software segments continued to show weakness, as product support and other services revenues declined sharply despite overall revenue growth. The decline in these legacy software businesses increased the company’s dependence on Bitcoin-related performance to maintain results. Weakness in these segments is expected to have affected operating stability in the fourth quarter of 2025.

MSTR’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation

Over the past three months, shares of MSTR have declined 43.4%, sharply trailing the Finance sector’s 4.3% gain. The stock has also lagged leading high-exposure Bitcoin proxies, including Riot Platforms RIOT, CleanSpark CLSK and Coinbase Global COIN. During the same timeframe, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Coinbase Global posted losses of 25.3%, 32.0% and 41.1%, respectively, underscoring broad weakness across Bitcoin proxy stocks.

MSTR 3-Month Stock Performance

Let us look at the value Strategy offers investors at current levels. Strategy stock is overvalued, as the Value Score of F suggests a stretched valuation at this moment. In terms of forward 12-month price/sales, MSTR is trading at 86.73X, significantly higher than the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry’s 3.03X, Riot Platforms' 8.07X, CleanSpark’s 3.62X and Coinbase Global’s 6.45X.

MSTR Forward 12-Month P/S Ratio

Investment Considerations of MSTR Stock

Strategy approaches the fourth quarter of 2025 with improving financial fundamentals, supported by record profitability, continued growth in Bitcoin holdings and expanded access to capital through preferred equity offerings. Its status as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and improving regulatory clarity enhance its long-term strategic positioning. Management’s targets of a 30% BTC yield and a $20 billion Bitcoin dollar gain for 2025 reflect a commitment to disciplined capital deployment through preferred securities, controlled common stock issuance guided by mNAV thresholds and sustained Bitcoin accumulation. Additional tailwinds include strong earnings guidance, an expanding digital credit platform and broader institutional access following the company’s S&P credit rating.

However, earnings remain highly exposed to Bitcoin price volatility under fair-value accounting, while rising dividend obligations and ongoing equity issuance raise dilution and cash flow risks. Weakness in legacy software revenues and a speculative valuation premium further temper the outlook. These factors suggest that the stock’s near-term performance will remain closely tied to cryptocurrency market conditions and broader investor sentiment.

Conclusion: Hold MSTR Stock Now

Strategy’s expanding Bitcoin exposure and strengthening funding profile support its growth narrative. Yet, high valuation levels, earnings volatility tied to Bitcoin prices and growing dividend obligations constrain near-term upside potential. In light of these offsetting factors, holding the stock remains the most prudent approach for now and waiting for a better entry point to accumulate the stock. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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