ConocoPhillips Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

ConocoPhillips COP set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the large-cap upstream company’s adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40 due to increased oil-equivalent production volumes.

The upstream player beat earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 6.27%. This is depicted in the graph below.

ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise

 

ConocoPhillips price-eps-surprise | ConocoPhillips Quote

COP’s Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.08 has witnessed no revision in the past seven days. The consensus estimate implies a decline of 45.5% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $14.05 billion indicates an 4.7% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider for COP

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the West Texas Intermediate spot price (in dollars per barrel) for October, November and December of 2025 was $60.89, $60.06 and $57.97, respectively, marking significant declines from the $71.99, $69.95 and $70.12 reported in the same period in 2024. The significant year-over-year drop in crude prices in the December-end quarter of 2025 is likely to have hurt COP’s revenues.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for COP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: COP has an Earnings ESP of -2.54%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Antero Resources AR currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AR is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 52 cents per share, suggesting a 10.3% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

Antero Midstream Corporation AM presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Antero Midstream is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 24 cents per share, suggesting a 4.4% increase from the prior-year reported figure.

BP plc BP currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.

BP is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s earnings is pegged at 57 cents per share, suggesting a 30% improvement from the prior-year reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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