Gray Media, Inc. (GTN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Gray Media, Inc. on Cundill Deep Value’s Substack by FRAGMENTS. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GTN. Gray Media, Inc.'s share was trading at $4.2900 as of January 29th. GTN’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.98 and 1.48 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Gray Media, Inc., a multimedia company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States and represents a deeply undervalued levered local-TV platform with three underappreciated strengths: political advertising cyclicality, resilient retransmission revenues, and monetizable hard assets. The company is set to benefit materially from the 2026 midterm election cycle, projected to be the most expensive in U.S. history with nearly $10.8 billion in political ad spend. GTN’s political segment already generated a record $497 million in 2024, positioning it for another outsized contribution in 2026.

Meanwhile, its retransmission fees provide stable cash flow during non-political years, cushioning cyclicality and supporting debt service. The company also owns significant tangible assets, including the 135-acre Assembly Atlanta studio complex and 43-acre campus anchored by NBCUniversal, conservatively valued at $0.9 billion ($9.28 per share). Complementing this are tower and real estate assets, with recent monetizations yielding $35 million while preserving ownership and control.

Management has actively de-risked the balance sheet, extending maturities through strategic refinancing, including a new $775 million first-lien due 2033, $900 million second-lien due 2032, and an upsized $750 million revolver maturing in 2028—effectively eliminating near-term refinancing pressure. Institutional investors like Miller Value Partners and Capital Management Corp have built sizable positions, reflecting growing confidence in GTN’s turnaround and asset value realization.

With the next major election cycle approaching, ample liquidity, and optional asset monetization pathways, GTN offers a compelling risk/reward setup. The base case fair value is estimated around $17 per share, with a bull scenario of $37 and asset-backed downside protection near $5–7, creating asymmetric upside into 2026.

Previously we covered a bearish thesis on Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) by Tyler Moody in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s excessive leverage, cyclical dependence, and structural industry decline. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 8.52% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as GTN’s debt burden remains high. FRAGMENTS shares a contrarian but emphasizes undervaluation, political ad tailwinds, and asset monetization potential into 2026.

Gray Media, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 26 hedge fund portfolios held GTN at the end of the second quarter which was 28 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of GTN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.