Should Philip Morris Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Philip Morris International Inc. PM is likely to register growth in both top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at almost $10.4 billion, implying a 7.3% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $1.67 per share, indicating an increase of 7.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. Philip Morris delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.4%.

Philip Morris International Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Philip Morris International Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Philip Morris International Inc. Quote

Things to Know About PM’s Upcoming Results

Philip Morris has continued to benefit from its accelerating shift toward a smoke-free portfolio. Smoke-free products accounted for more than 42% of gross profit in the third quarter of 2025, supported by strong performance from IQOS, ZYN and VEEV. IQOS maintained solid traction across Europe and Japan, while ZYN delivered robust volume growth, particularly in the United States, reinforcing smoke-free momentum. These positives are expected to have supported the quarter under review.

In the third quarter, smoke-free shipment volumes increased 16.6% and organic smoke-free revenues grew 13.9%, driven by a favorable mix and pricing. The rising contribution from higher-margin smoke-free products, combined with resilient combustible pricing, is likely to have sustained revenue quality and operating leverage in the upcoming quarter.

Pricing discipline and cost efficiencies remained key margin drivers. Philip Morris delivered notable adjusted operating margin expansion in the third quarter, aided by strong gross margin performance across both smoke-free and combustible categories. Ongoing productivity initiatives and scale benefits from smoke-free growth are likely to have continued to support profitability in the upcoming quarter, despite elevated commercial investments.

However, persistent declines in combustible cigarette volumes and foreign exchange volatility remained notable headwinds. Cigarette shipment volumes declined at a low-single-digit rate in the third quarter, reflecting structural industry pressures that are likely to have extended into the fourth quarter. Currency movements might also have tempered the performance, partially offsetting strong underlying operational execution.

Earnings Whispers for PM Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Philip Morris this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. 

Philip Morris has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

The Hershey Company HSY currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for Hershey’s quarterly revenues is pinned at $3 billion, which calls for 4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $1.40, which implies a 48% decrease year over year. HSY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of nearly 15%, on average.

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. EL currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus mark for Estee Lauder’s upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $4.22 billion, which indicates an increase of 5.3% from the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 83 cents, implying a 33.9% increase from the year-ago period. EL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 82.6%, on average.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 19 cents, which implies a 35.7% increase year over year. 

The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $639.2 million, which indicates a surge of 92.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 42.9%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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