Intercontinental's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards?

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, indicating 6.5% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.67 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved 1 cent up in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 9.9%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for ICE

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Intercontinental Exchange this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Intercontinental Exchange has an Earnings ESP of -0.21%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. price-eps-surprise | Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: ICE carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape Q4 Results of ICE

ICE’s fourth-quarter results are likely to benefit from continued strong trends across fixed-income data and analytics and an acceleration in growth in other data and network services businesses. Continued demand for high-value proprietary data offerings is likely to have aided these businesses.

Fixed Income and Data Services revenues are likely to have gained from the strength of fixed income data and analytics products and data and network technology. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fixed Income and Data Services revenues is pegged at $608.7 million. Fixed income data and analytics products are likely to have gained from the pricing and reference data business and strength in the index business.  Growth in the ICE Global Network offering, coupled with strength in consolidated feeds, desktop and derivative analytics revenues, is likely to have favored data and network technology.

Higher volumes in energy futures and options markets, financial futures and options markets, increased cash equities volume, improved data and connectivity services revenues, as well as listings revenues, are likely to have favored the Exchange segment in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Exchange segment revenue is pinned at $2 billion. 

Increased origination technology revenues, closing solutions revenues, MSP mortgage servicing system revenues, and default management revenues are expected to have aided the Mortgage Technology segment’s revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $544 million. 

Expenses are likely to have increased owing to higher compensation and benefits, professional expenses, acquisition-related transaction costs, and technology and communication costs. 

For the fourth quarter of 2025, GAAP operating expenses are expected in the range of $1.225-$1.265 billion. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $1.005 billion and $1.015 billion. Non-operating expense is anticipated to be between $180 million and $185 million. 

Continued share buybacks are likely to have been a positive.

ICE reported a 7% increase in fourth-quarter average daily volume (ADV). Total Commodities ADV improved 9% year over year, while Energy ADV increased 10% year over year. Total Financials ADV increased 5% in the fourth quarter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

S&P Global SPGI has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.29, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13.8%. 

SPGI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

RenaissanceRe RNR has an Earnings ESP of +6.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.59, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.4%. 

RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.

The Hanover Insurance THG has an Earnings ESP of +11.15% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.08, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.5%.

THG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research