Will These 4 Insurance Stocks Insure a Q4 Earnings Beat?

The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season is in full swing, and the spotlight is now on the insurance space. So far, several major S&P 500 constituents, including Marsh, Aon and Hartford Insurance, have reported their quarterly results, each surpassing earnings estimates and setting a positive tone for the broader industry.

The Insurance space belongs to the Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification), overall earnings of which are projected to jump 17.7% from the year-ago quarter. Revenues are expected to climb up 9.3%, as indicated by our latest Earnings Preview.

Several notable insurance players, including Aflac Incorporated AFL, MetLife, Inc. MET, The Allstate Corporation ALL and Everest Group, Ltd. EG, are scheduled to report their fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 04, 2026. Before diving into company-specific expectations, it’s important to understand the broader industry trends likely to influence these outcomes.

Factors Likely to Shape Insurers’ Performance in Q4

The fourth-quarter earnings for insurance companies are expected to be supported by disciplined underwriting, stable renewal trends and selective pricing actions amid competitive market conditions, per the AON Global Insurance Market Insights report. These are likely to have aided steady premium growth.

Continued investments in digital platforms, data analytics and automation are likely to have enhanced operational efficiency and claims management, helping insurers protect margins despite ongoing cost pressures.

Fourth-quarter 2025 saw a couple of rate cuts by the Fed, following one in September, which are expected to have impacted insurers’ investment income, especially for the variable-yield investments. Nevertheless, the reduced rates still remained above the historical averages.

Catastrophe losses were relatively benign in the fourth quarter due to fewer major events. This is likely to have improved underwriting results for P&C insurers. However, full-year results are expected to bear the burden of wildfire events and severe convective storms in the country from earlier in 2025.

Mergers and acquisitions are expected to have enabled some companies to expand into new markets and diversify their portfolios.

As AFL, MET, ALL and EG prepare to report, investors are asking the big question: Will strong industry tailwinds outweigh the challenges and deliver another round of earnings surprises?

What’s in Store for AFL, MET, ALL & EG Tomorrow?

Our proprietary model clearly indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key elements — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Against the above backdrop, let’s find out how the following four companies are placed ahead of their fourth-quarter earnings release tomorrow.

Aflac: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s net earned premiums indicates a 3% year-over-year increase. The consensus mark for adjusted revenues in the Aflac Japan segment signals 1% growth from the year-ago level, while the Aflac U.S. unit suggests a 5.1% rise from the year-ago quarter. However, the upside is expected to be partly offset by elevated acquisition and operating expenses, coupled with reduced net investment income. The consensus mark indicates a 5% decline in net investment income in the fourth quarter. (Read more: Aflac Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Can Higher Premiums Help it Quack?)

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter earnings and top line stands at $1.71 per share and $4.5 billion, respectively, indicating earnings growth of 9.6% and a revenue increase of 3.8% from the corresponding year-ago quarter’s actuals. Aflac’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 9.4%.

Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Aflac this time around, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of -3.12% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

MetLife: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is pegged at $5.5 billion for the quarter under review, suggesting a 1.7% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Group Benefits business' adjusted earnings is pegged at $439.8 million. Rising profits from Latin America and EMEA regions are likely to have aided its quarterly performance, partially offset by lower profits from the Asia business.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter earnings and top line stands at $2.36 per share and $25.6 billion, respectively, indicating an earnings increase of 13.5% and revenue growth of 29.6% from the corresponding year-ago quarter’s figures. MET missed the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and beat it once.

MetLife, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MetLife, Inc. price-eps-surprise | MetLife, Inc. Quote

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MetLife this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +0.07% and a Zacks Rank #4 at present.

The Allstate Corporation: The company’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to have been supported by premium growth. The consensus mark for net premiums earned signals 7.2% growth from the year-ago level. Net investment income is expected to have received an impetus from higher-yielding fixed-income securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income indicates 5.1% year-over-year growth. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted net income from the Protection Services business indicates a 0.7% year-over-year decline.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s bottom and top line is pegged at $9.82 per share and $17.5 billion, respectively, indicating an earnings surge of 28% and a revenue increase of 4.9% from the corresponding year-ago quarter’s readings. ALL’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 47.3%.

The Allstate Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

The Allstate Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Allstate Corporation Quote

Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. This is because the stock has an Earnings ESP of +3.47% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Everest Group: The company’s fourth-quarter results are expected to reflect premium growth, driven by the solid performance of the Reinsurance and Insurance segments. The consensus mark for total premiums earned signals 0.6% growth from the year-ago level. Net investment income is likely to have increased from higher limited partnership income and an increase in income from fixed maturity investments. However, total claims & expenses are likely to have increased largely owing to higher incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, commission, brokerage, taxes and fees, and other underwriting expenses.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter earnings stands at $13.36 per share, which increased by 3 cents over the past month. EG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the last four quarters and missed in the other three. Revenues are expected to decline 7.1% year over year to $4.3 billion.

Everest Group, Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Everest Group, Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Everest Group, Ltd. Quote

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Everest Group this time around as well, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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