Is a Beat in Store for Cincinnati Financial This Earnings Season?

Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF is expected to register an improvement in its top line but a decline in its bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2025  results on Feb. 9, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating 9.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $2.78 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved north by 3.3% in the past 30 days. The estimate, however, suggests a year-over-year decrease of 11.5%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for CINF    

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CINF this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat. 

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: CINF has an Earnings ESP of +4.57%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.85 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.01.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Cincinnati Financial Corporation price-eps-surprise | Cincinnati Financial Corporation Quote

Zacks Rank: CINF carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape CINF’s Q4 Results

Increased exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business, and improved premiums from Cincinnati Re are likely to have favored premiums in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.6 billion.

Rate increases, a higher level of insured exposures, higher policy retention rates and changes in policy deductibles or mix of business are expected to have favored performance at Personal Lines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Personal Lines revenues is pegged at $846.6 million.

Excess and Surplus lines premiums are likely to have benefited from better agency renewal and new business written premiums due to higher renewal pricing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excess and Surplus lines revenues is pegged at $187.6 million. 

Solid cash flow from operating activities and higher bond yields are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is pegged at $303.6 million.

Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders' benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, interest expense, and other operating expenses. 

Prudent underwriting, coupled with a benign catastrophe environment, is likely to have aided underwriting profitability. 

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three P&C insurance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Arch Capital Group ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +4.54% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.49, indicating a year-over-year increase of 10.2%. 

ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in one of the last four reported quarters.

CNA Financial CNA has an Earnings ESP of +11.67% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.20, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4%.
 
CNA’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.

First American Financial FAF has an Earnings ESP of +2.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.49, indicating a year-over-year increase of 10.4%.

FAF’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research