Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Axon Enterprise, Inc. on Arya’s Substack by Arya. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AXON. Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s share was trading at $549.86 as of January 28th. AXON’s trailing and forward P/E were 193.11 and 77.52, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. AXON recently experienced a sharp sell-off, falling over 20% following its quarterly earnings, prompting me to increase my position despite the short-term pain. The stock is among the most expensive publicly traded companies globally, trading at levels not far from other high-valuation tech names, yet the fundamentals remain intact. The sell-off was largely driven by a missed profit expectation and softer-than-anticipated margin guidance, compounded by a broadly negative market reaction to earnings across the long book, where even strong performers like ALAB, PINS, UBER, and SHOP faced declines.

Despite the volatility, management provided encouraging signals during the earnings call, reinforcing my conviction that the company’s long-term story is intact. Axon remains a founder-led, unique company with a compelling and differentiated value proposition, drawing comparisons to iconic names like Apple. Historical patterns also suggest that this period may represent a seasonal buying opportunity, as November has traditionally been strong for AXON, even after weaker quarters.

Technically, the stock is hovering around key moving averages, including the 20-month moving average, while its RSI indicates significant oversold conditions, suggesting potential for near-term support. From a reflexive investing perspective, this moment highlights the contrast between market sentiment and intrinsic business quality.

If the story remains intact, large investors who previously missed the stock now have what could be a generational buying opportunity. Conversely, if the narrative has shifted, the position could prove costly, emphasizing the importance of continually reassessing both fundamentals and market dynamics. For now, AXON represents a high-conviction, founder-led investment with attractive long-term risk/reward characteristics.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) by RadnorCapital in March 2025, which highlighted strong revenue growth, international and federal expansion, AI-era product adoption, and record enterprise bookings. AXON’s stock price has appreciated by 10.12% since our coverage due to robust Q4 results. Arya shares a similar thesis but emphasizes the post-earnings sell-off and margin pressures as a potential buying opportunity.

Axon Enterprise, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 61 hedge fund portfolios held AXON at the end of the third quarter which was 62 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of AXON as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.