FOXA Q4 Deep Dive: News, Sports, and Streaming Drive Broad-Based Growth

Cable news and media network Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 2% year on year to $5.18 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.82 per share was 58.6% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Fox’s fourth quarter results were shaped by ongoing strength in its core live news and sports programming, alongside continued digital momentum. Management pointed to robust advertising demand across their cable and streaming platforms, with CEO Lachlan Murdoch highlighting “record-breaking ad revenue” for both Major League Baseball and NFL broadcasts. The company also credited the success of Tubi, its free ad-supported streaming service, for contributing to growth in both engagement and revenue. Notably, Fox One, the company’s new streaming platform, exceeded early expectations for subscriber uptake and engagement, which Murdoch described as “meaningful insights into audience engagement trends.”

Looking ahead, management believes Fox is positioned to benefit from an active political advertising cycle, further expansion of its digital streaming assets, and strategic sports programming. Murdoch emphasized the anticipated impact of the upcoming FIFA Men’s World Cup and continued strong NFL and motorsports coverage, saying, “We expect a robust political advertising cycle… [and] tremendous excitement around the World Cup by sponsors and advertisers.” CFO Steve Tomsic noted that while sports programming costs are expected to rise, Fox aims to offset these with increased advertising revenues and continued growth at Tubi and Fox One.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Fox’s leadership attributed the quarter’s performance to a combination of strong advertising in core segments, digital growth, and improved subscriber trends, while highlighting key developments in their streaming and content businesses.

• Advertising demand across platforms: Management reported exceptionally strong advertising across news and sports, noting that scatter pricing for Fox News increased by 46-47% year over year and 200 new advertisers joined during the quarter, supporting robust revenue growth even in a non-election year.
• Tubi streaming acceleration: Tubi delivered its highest-ever quarterly revenue and achieved EBITDA profitability for the second consecutive quarter, with total viewer time up 27%. Management credited this to original programming, including NFL simulcasts and exclusive series, and emphasized that 95% of Tubi’s consumption is on-demand.
• Fox One exceeds early expectations: The direct-to-consumer platform Fox One showed strong subscriber uptake and engagement, with about two-thirds of its audience coming for sports and one-third for news. Management stated they have “not observed any noticeable cannibalization of traditional subscribers,” supporting the platform’s role in reaching cord-cutters and younger audiences.
• Distribution revenue and subscriber trends: Fox’s distribution revenue grew 4%, with subscriber declines improving to 6.3%. Management highlighted the positive impact of “skinny bundle” offerings by distributors and their strategy of bundling channels to maintain pricing power and resilience against industry shifts.
• Content strategy and entertainment performance: Fox’s entertainment division posted its best season launch in over a decade, with new series exceeding 10 million viewers in their first week. Management cited a disciplined mix of scripted and non-scripted programming and continued investment in talent deals as drivers for the turnaround in entertainment revenue.

Drivers of Future Performance

Fox’s near-term outlook is underpinned by expectations of strong political advertising, continued digital platform growth, and major sports events, but management also flagged rising sports rights costs and evolving industry dynamics as areas to watch.

• Political advertising and election cycle: Management anticipates a robust political advertising market in the coming quarters, especially at Fox News and local stations, citing the network’s broad demographic appeal and growing national political spend.
• Sports programming and cost management: The upcoming FIFA World Cup, NFL, and motorsports events are expected to drive engagement and advertising revenue, though CEO Lachlan Murdoch acknowledged the need to balance increasing sports rights costs through portfolio management and monetization strategies.
• Streaming growth and market positioning: Fox is focused on expanding Tubi’s content slate and Fox One’s reach, targeting cord-cutters and “cord-nevers.” Management views these platforms as key to sustaining digital growth, capturing younger and more diverse audiences, and offsetting linear subscriber declines.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, StockStory analysts will be tracking (1) the magnitude and timing of political advertising revenue as the election cycle intensifies, (2) Tubi’s ongoing profitability and engagement growth as its content slate expands, and (3) Fox One’s ability to sustain subscriber momentum and mitigate sports seasonality. Developments in sports rights negotiations and the impact of skinny bundles on subscriber trends will also be important to monitor.

FOX currently trades at $67.37, down from $70.27 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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