Space stocks ripped through 2025 as darlings of speculative growth, but the sector has hit serious resistance in 2026.
As evidence builds for a massive IPO for SpaceX—potentially valuing the aerospace giant at a staggering $1.5 trillion—investors are rotating capital out of established public players.
The sell-off points to a “wait-and-see” approach, with liquidity being hoarded to secure a slice of Elon Musk‘s dominant space juggernaut.
The Valuation Gap
SpaceX is rumored to be targeting a 60x to 70x price-to-sales multiple and can justify those premiums through the recurring revenue of Starlink, rapid cadence of Falcon 9 and its overall dominance in the space economy.
The broader space sector looks overheated by comparison. SpaceX's competitors are still reliant on expendable or only semi-reusable hardware and cannot match the margins of a fully reusable fleet.
For many, the high tide of a SpaceX IPO isn’t lifting all boats; it’s revealing which ones are still stuck in the mud.
One-Month Stock Performance Breakdown
The past 30 days have been particularly brutal for the new space cohort.
As capital rotates toward the anticipated SpaceX debut, most public peers have seen significant double-digit declines over the past month:
AST SpaceMobile has shown resilience due to its specific satellite-to-phone milestones, the broader hardware and launch providers like Rocket Lab and Sidus Space have borne the brunt of the rotation.
Rocket Lab is racing to field the reusable Neutron rocket, but remains at a disadvantage until it moves past the expendable Electron model. Virgin Galactic continues to struggle with high burn rates and low flight frequency.
As the SpaceX IPO eclipses the field of competitors, other space stocks are likely to continue being viewed as high-risk satellites orbiting SpaceX's trillion-dollar sun.
Photo: Ice stocker/Shutterstock
