QBTS Stock Already Down 23% in 2026: Buy or Hold as Fed Stays Tight?

D-Wave Quantum’s QBTS roughly 23% decline so far in 2026, underperforming the broader markets and key benchmarks, shows how investors are differentiating between early-stage, speculative growth stories and more established segments of the market.

At the macro level, early-2026 markets have witnessed a clear rotation away from speculative, long-duration growth assets. High-beta technology stocks have broadly lagged as investors reassess valuations amid persistent inflation, delayed U.S. economic data releases and expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer. This environment has been particularly unforgiving for emerging technology themes, including quantum computing, where commercialization timelines remain uncertain and near-term cash flows are limited—triggering outsized sell-offs across the space.  Companies like Rigetti Computing RGTI and IonQ IONQ are also experiencing notable share price pressure.

Against this backdrop, whether QBTS can regain momentum ahead of its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings in March 2026 becomes a critical question for investors. For this, investors need to dig deeper into backlog quality, cash-burn trajectory, dilution risk and evidence of sustainable commercial adoption.

Stock Comparison in 2026

QBTS' Commercial Traction and Revenue Visibility

D-Wave’s key strength is its early commercial traction and diversified revenue model, which differentiates it from most quantum peers. In the first nine months of 2025, the company generated $21.8 million in revenues, driven primarily by system sales and upgrades, while delivering GAAP gross margins above 80%.

With over 100 paying customers, including several Forbes Global 2000 companies and rising deal sizes, highlighted by the €10 million Advantage2 contract in Europe, QBTS enters 2026 with improved revenue visibility and a growing focus on enterprise deployments rather than pure research contracts.

Financial Strength

Another major advantage is technology leadership backed by a strong balance sheet. D-Wave is the only quantum company advancing both annealing and gate-model systems, with its Advantage2 platform already showing real-world quantum advantage. Ending the third quarter with more than $800 million in cash, the company has ample runway to scale its QCaaS platform, advance Advantage3 development and pursue targeted M&A, supporting growth through the rest of 2026 despite a challenging macro backdrop.

Will the Macro Challenges Ease Out Soon?

Macro conditions are unlikely to turn supportive in the immediate term. U.S. government-linked projections suggest monetary policy will remain relatively tight through 2026. The Congressional Budget Office expects the Federal Reserve to delay meaningful easing, with policy rates staying elevated even as longer-term Treasury yields drift higher, reflecting persistent inflation risks and fiscal pressures. Federal Reserve communications have also emphasized the need for clearer, sustained progress toward the 2% inflation target before accelerating cuts, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” stance. Until inflation data and labor market indicators provide that confirmation, the risk appetite for long-duration, speculative technologies such as quantum computing is likely to remain constrained, limiting near-term relief for stocks like QBTS.

What the Trend Shows

Despite the downsides, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for QBTS’ 2025 loss of 20 cents per share suggests a 47.4% improvement year over year.

Further, based on short-term price targets offered by 14 analysts, the average price target for D-Wave represents an increase of 88.6% from the last closing price of $21.40.

Our Take

Given the competing forces at play, investors may be best served by a measured, wait-and-see approach toward QBTS at current levels. While near-term macro pressures and volatility could persist, putting pressure on the broader quantum space, including peers Rigetti and IonQ, D-Wave’s improving fundamentals, strong liquidity position and narrowing losses support longer-term upside potential. For now, a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) suggests maintaining exposure while closely monitoring execution, cash burn and commercial traction for clearer entry or exit signals. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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