Moderna to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store for the Stock?

We expect Moderna MRNA to surpass expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 13, before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates by 76.28% in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $661.4 million and a loss of $2.60 per share, respectively.

Factors Shaping Moderna’s Upcoming Results

Moderna currently has three marketed products in its portfolio — two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and an RSV vaccine (mResvia). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for overall product sales is pegged at $627 million, with a significant portion coming from the COVID-19 vaccines.

We expect minimal product sales of the company's RSV vaccine, mResvia. Thissofter sales expectation is likely due to stiff competition and the strong foothold of the competing RSV vaccines marketed by GSK and Pfizer.

Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Investors will likely focus on updates surrounding pipeline development.

An important candidate in Moderna’s pipeline is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy which is being developed in collaboration with Merck MRK. Last month, the companies reported encouraging median five-year follow-up data from a mid-stage study, which evaluated the therapy plus Merck’s blockbuster oncology drug Keytruda in certain patients with high-risk melanoma. The combo therapy reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% versus Keytruda alone in patients with high-risk melanoma following complete resection.

Moderna and Merck are currently evaluating intismeran in three pivotal phase III studies — one in the melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer space. It is also being evaluated in separate mid-stage studies across other cancer indications, such as bladder cancer and renal carcinoma. Investors will likely be seeking updates from management on this Merck-partnered therapy’s progress across these studies.

Investors’ attention will also be on mRNA-1083, Moderna’s COVID-19/influenza combination vaccine, which remains on track for FDA resubmission soon. The initial filing was voluntarily withdrawn last year after the agency requested additional efficacy data for the flu component. This issue was addressed with positive late-stage data announced in June, where the company’s standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior efficacy compared with GSK’s approved influenza vaccine. mRNA-1083 integrates the company’s COVID-19 vaccine with mRNA-1010.

MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History

The firm’s performance has been impressive over the past four quarters. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 31.45%.

Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote

Moderna’s Stock Movement

In the past year, Moderna’s shares have risen nearly 29% compared with the industry’s 39% growth.

What Our Model Predicts for MRNA

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combinationofa positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of +3.16%. The Most Accurate Estimate stands at a loss of $2.52 per share, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of $2.60.

Zacks Rank: MRNA currently carriesa Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combinations

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Castle Biosciences CSTL has an Earnings ESP of +68.89% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Shares of CSTL have risen 18% in the past year. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining occasion. Castle Biosciences delivered an average surprise of 66.11%. It is scheduled to report Q4 results on Feb. 26.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals JAZZ has an Earnings ESP of +5.45% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of JAZZ have risen 34% in the past year. The company’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions, delivering a negative average surprise of 10.48%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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