Toast Nears Q4 Earnings Release: Here's What Investors Need to Know

Toast Inc. TOST is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $1.62 billion, up 21% from a year ago.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-GAAP earnings per share is pegged at 24 cents, suggesting a jump of 380% on a year-over-year basis.

TOST’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last trailing four quarters, lagged in one and matched in the remaining, with the average surprise being a negative 1.81%. The stock has slipped 33.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Internet-Software industry’s fall of 19.1%.

Key Metrics to Monitor

Toast’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been shaped by new highs in ARR and market expansion, strong revenue momentum and increased adoption of AI-driven products. Toast’s ability to expand its total addressable market, leverage AI-driven innovation and deepen its value proposition for restaurant operators bodes well for long-term prospects.

Strong customer momentum across the Subscription and FinTech segments is likely to have aided TOST’s top and bottom lines. It expects fourth-quarter non-GAAP gross profit from subscription services and financial technology solutions to range from $480 million to $490 million, implying 22–25% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $140 million and $150 million.

During the quarter, Toast and Uber entered a multi-year global partnership to drive product innovation and go-to-market initiatives for restaurant growth. Starting in the United States and Canada, the companies will deepen integration of Toast’s POS platform with Uber’s delivery network to improve digital ordering, enhance guest experiences and boost sales. New tools, including promotions and advertising integrations on Uber Eats, will roll out in 2026, enabling Toast merchants to manage marketing directly from the Toast platform and drive incremental demand at lower cost.

Toast, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Toast, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Toast, Inc. Quote

Toast’s ability to attract and retain restaurants remains key to its growth story. It added approximately 7,500 net new locations during the third quarter, bringing total locations powered by its platform to 156,000 globally, a 23% year-over-year increase. Importantly, this growth is not limited to a single segment. Toast continues to expand across SMB restaurants while also making progress with multi-location and enterprise customers. It continues to gain traction internationally as it expands its platform and builds its global brand, winning large hospitality groups across Europe and Canada. Ongoing platform enhancements, improved online ordering and inventory tools and greater regional customization are strengthening its build toward a leading global restaurant platform.

In addition to strong financials, the company is positioning itself as a comprehensive operating system for restaurants, not just a point-of-sale provider. Recent launches such as Toast IQ and Toast Advertising exemplify this strategy. Toast IQ leverages AI to help restaurant operators make smarter decisions, optimize operations and improve margins. Toast Advertising opens a new monetization avenue by helping restaurants drive demand more effectively, while also creating incremental high-margin revenue streams for Toast. These products expand Toast’s TAM. Over time, this should further strengthen Toast’s competitive moat.

However, management flagged near-term headwinds, citing higher tariff costs and the need to protect payback periods while expanding into new markets. The company also absorbed $31 million in bad debt and credit-related expenses, with defaults merely tracking expectations. While macro conditions showed signs of normalization in October, management indicated that performance remained broadly in line with, rather than ahead of, expectations.

Earnings Whispers for TOST

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for TOST this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

TOST has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right elements to post an earnings beat in this reporting cycle.

Trimble Inc. TRMB, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trimble’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 96 cents per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 7.9%. TRMB has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 7.4%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3. CAKE is slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 18. In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected at 98 cents to decline 5.8% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.7%.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3. DPZ is releasing quarterly results on Feb. 23, 2026. In the to-be-reported quarter, Domino's earnings are expected to register a 9.6% year-over-year rise to $5.36 per share. Domino's earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average beat of 1.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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