Smurfit Westrock to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Smurfit Westrock PLC SW is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $7.67 billion, indicating 1.7% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 46 cents, indicating a year-over-year rise from 34 cents. The bottom-line estimate has remained constant in the past 60 days.

Smurfit Westrock’s Earnings Surprise History

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, delivering an average negative surprise of 18.4%.

Factors Likely to Shape SW’s Q4 Results

Demand for corrugated packaging and containerboard used to package essential items, such as food, beverages and medicines, has remained stable. Strong growth in e-commerce and rising demand for paper as a sustainable packaging solution have favored the industry. These trends are expected to get reflected in Smurfit Westrock’s fourth-quarter 2025 results.

However, some of these gains are likely to have been offset by weak volumes in Europe and lower box demand. This is expected to hurt Smurfit Westrock’s quarterly results.

The merger-related costs are expected to have affected SW’s quarterly performance and free cash flow margin. Pricing actions and cost-saving initiatives are likely to have negated some of these headwinds.

Smurfit Westrock’s Q4 Segmental Projection

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Europe, MEA and APAC’s revenues is pegged at $2.74 billion for the fourth quarter, indicating an increase from $2.51 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $426 million. In the prior-year quarter, the segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $371 million.

The estimates for the North America segment’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues are pegged at $4.49 billion compared with $4.52 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $716 million, suggesting 0.8% year-over-year growth.

The LATAM segment’s revenue estimate is pegged at $533 million, suggesting year-over-year growth from $505 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $116 million, indicating a dip from $121 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for SW Stock

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for Smurfit Westrock this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

SW’s Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Smurfit Westrock is -31.87%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SW’s Zacks Rank: SW currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Smurfit Westrock Stock’s Price Performance

Shares of the company have lost 14.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s 6.1% decline.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Agnico Eagle Mines’ quarterly earnings are pegged at $2.19 per share, indicating a year-over-year jump of 73.8%. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 11.6%.

Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +1.36% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pan American Silver’s earnings is pegged at 86 cents per share, implying a significant climb from 35 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Pan American Silver delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 31.6%.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +8.68% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The consensus mark for Kinross Gold’s earnings is pegged at 56 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 180%. Kinross Gold delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 17.4%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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