Vertex Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX to surpass expectations when it reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 12, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $3.17 billion, while the same for earnings is $5.07 per share.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up before the announcement.

Factors Likely to Influence VRTX's Q4 Results

Vertex’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by strong demand for blockbuster cystic fibrosis (“CF”) medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales is currently pegged at $2.57 billion.

However, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of VRTX’s other CF drugs — Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.

Though Vertex’s CF franchise sales continue to grow, driven by demand growth of Trikafta/Kaftrio in younger age groups, we expect investors to focus on the sales performance of its fifth CF medicine, Alyftrek (vanza triple), in the to-be-reported quarter.

Alyftrek sales increased sequentially in the third quarter, a trend most likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Per management, the U.S. launch of Alyftrek is progressing well across all patient groups, while in ex-U.S. markets, the early launch of Alyftrek is off to a strong start in multiple European countries, where patients have reimbursed access.

In the past six months, shares of Vertex have increased 25.7% compared with the industry’s rally of 26.7%.

VRTX’s Other New Products Sales Expectation for Q4

Vertex and its partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved in late 2023/early 2024 for two blood disorders — sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.

Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement, with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.

Though Casgevy sales declined sequentially in the third quarter, the decline is likely to have reversed in the fourth quarter. Vertex recently said that it has realized its goal of greater than $100 million of Casgevy revenues in 2025.

Vertex recorded $61.5 million in Casgevy revenues in the first nine months of 2025. As a result, we expect Casgevy sales to be around $40 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company has been securing reimbursement and access to Casgevy globally and expects significant growth in 2026.

VRTX’s novel non-opioid pain medicine Journavx (suzetrigine) was approved by the FDA last January. Though Journavx’s sales did not improve as expected in the third quarter, the drug’s launch metrics and early reimbursement progress look favorable. Vertex expects higher sales from Journavx in the fourth quarter as prescription volumes are rising.

Updates related to Vertex’s pipeline candidates, which are in mid- to late-stage studies for treating diseases like acute and neuropathic pain, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, IgA nephropathy, primary membranous nephropathy, and cell therapy for type 1 diabetes, are also expected on the upcoming earnings call.

VRTX's Earnings Surprise History

Vertex has a mixed history of earnings surprises over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining two occasions, delivering an average surprise of 2.01%. In the last reported quarter, VRTX posted an earnings surprise of 5.49%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote

What Our Model Predicts for VRTX

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

VRTX’s Earnings ESP: Vertex’s Earnings ESP is +5.38% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $5.34, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which is pegged at $5.07.

VRTX’s Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Castle Biosciences CSTL has an Earnings ESP of +68.89% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Shares of CSTL have rallied 68.2% in the past six months. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining occasion, delivering an average surprise of 66.11%. CSTL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26.

Moderna MRNA has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of MRNA have risen 64.7% in the past six months. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 31.45%. Moderna is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 13.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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