ROKU Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Roku ROKU is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, 2026.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Roku expects total net revenues of approximately $1.35 billion, indicating an increase of 12% year over year. The company anticipates Platform revenues to grow 15% year over year, and Devices revenues are anticipated to remain roughly flat from the prior year. It expects third-quarter total gross profit of approximately $575 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $145 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.35 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 12.62%. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 28 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. The estimate reflects a notable improvement from the year-ago loss of 24 cents per share.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 128.57%. Roku’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 86.85%.

Factors to Note Ahead of ROKU’s Q4 Results

Platform monetization momentum entered the fourth quarter of 2025 from a position of strength, reflecting sustained advertiser demand, expanding subscription distribution and improving programmatic execution. Third-quarter platform revenue growth of 17% year over year underscored these favorable trends, while management’s guidance for roughly 15% fourth-quarter growth — supported by healthier organic performance and gross margins near 52% — signals continued operating discipline. These dynamics are expected to have benefited from platform strength, supporting improved financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Subscription and streaming distribution continued to strengthen Roku’s Platform monetization heading into the fourth quarter of 2025. Third-quarter gains were driven by higher premium subscriptions, Roku-billed sign-ups and Friendly TV integration, along with improvements to discovery, including AI-powered recommendations and improved sports navigation, which improved conversions and reduced cancellations. Management has emphasized that subscription revenues are scaling faster than advertising, underscoring stable demand. This combination indicates Roku is anticipated to have gained from a stronger recurring revenue base, supporting improved distribution-led Platform performance in the quarter under review.

Strengthening operating leverage positioned Roku favorably entering into the fourth quarter of 2025. Achieving its first operating profit since 2021 reflected tighter expense control and higher-margin Platform contribution. Management’s outlook for a record fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of roughly $145 million, alongside healthy free cash flow and active capital returns, signals growing earnings efficiency and financial resilience. This improving profitability profile suggests revenue gains are translating into bottom-line momentum, indicating Roku was anticipated to have benefited from enhanced financial performance in the quarter under review.

However, Roku carried the Devices business margin pressure into the fourth quarter of 2025, reinforcing the segment’s role as a profitability drag. Third-quarter results revealed declining revenues and a double-digit negative margin, pointing to weak hardware economics even at scale. Management expects device margins to worsen into the negative high-20% range due to seasonal promotional activity. Accordingly, the segment is expected to have pressured consolidated profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says About Roku Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Roku this time. According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Roku currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:

Pursuit PRSU currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.94% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. PRSU shares have returned 11.3% in the year-to-date period. It is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25, 2026. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Inter Parfums, Inc. IPAR currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #2. IPAR shares have gained 18% in the year-to-date period. It is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24, 2026.

Pool Corp. POOL has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. POOL shares have risen 14.8% year to date. It is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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