Rio Tinto Surges 36.7% in 3 Months: Should You Buy the Stock Now?

Rio Tinto Group RIO shares have climbed 36.7% in the past three months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500, which have returned 23.3% and 2.4%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers like BHP Group Limited BHP and TMC the metals company Inc. TMC have gained 28.4% and 13.5%, respectively, over the same time frame.

RIO Outperforms Industry & S&P 500

Closing at $97.24 in the last trading session, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $98.60 and significantly higher than its 52-week low of $51.67. It is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

RIO Stock’s 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Averages

Let’s take a look at RIO’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Performance

Rio Tinto is gaining from rising copper production, driven by strong operational performance across its assets. Per the production results, the company’s consolidated copper output increased 5% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025.

RIO is making steady progress across its growth pipeline. In December 2025, the company achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona using its proprietary Nuton technology. This marks a significant milestone, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.

The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. RIO plans to use Nuton technology to produce copper at this site with the lowest carbon emissions in the US.

Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. Its total copper production reached 883 kilotonne (kt) in 2025, up 11% on a year-over-year basis.

In the fourth quarter, RIO’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara facility showed improvement, with shipments rising 7% from the previous year. The aluminum production also delivered encouraging results. RIO’s aluminum output rose 2% in the quarter, on a year-over-year basis, as refinery and smelter operations improved.

Also, in January 2026, Rio Tinto and Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco) inked a deal to acquire Votorantim’s controlling stake in Brazilian aluminium company CBA through a joint venture.  The joint venture will be owned 33% by Rio Tinto and 67% by Chalco. The deal will help RIO to expand its green aluminium footprint and strengthen its supply chain.

Several major growth projects of the company are progressing as well. In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is expected to conclude in 2029. In October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported, marking the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure. 

Despite the overall solid performance, the company faced some challenges during the quarter. Weather-related disruptions earlier in 2025 affected iron ore volumes. Planned maintenance activities at some copper mining projects temporarily reduced output, while cost pressures from inflation and higher sustaining capital spending impacted margins.

RIO operates in the mineral exploration and mining markets, which include major industry players like BHP Group and TMC.

It is worth noting that Rio Tinto is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, 2026.

RIO’s Estimate Revisions

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s bottom line for 2026 has increased 6.4% in the past 60 days.

Valuation

From a valuation standpoint, Rio Tinto is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.84X compared with the industry’s average of 16.31X. In comparison, BHP Group and TMC are trading at 15.38X and negative 27.34X, respectively.

Conclusion

Despite challenges such as weather disruptions, planned maintenance and higher costs, steady progress in Rio Tinto’s growth projects supports a positive long-term outlook. Higher copper output, advancement at major iron ore projects and improving aluminium and lithium operations leave the company well positioned for sustained growth, creating an attractive opportunity for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research