'Worst-Performing' Hyperscaler: How Microsoft Lost AI Returns War To Meta's 454% Surge Since ChatGPT Launch

Despite its multi-billion dollar bet and early lead in generative AI, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) has emerged as the surprise laggard among Magnificent 7 hyperscalers, as investors begin to favor Meta Platforms Inc.'s (NASDAQ:META) leaner, high-yield AI strategy.

The Performance Paradox

Since the launch of ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022, Microsoft has unexpectedly become the worst-performing stock among tech's cloud giants.

Data through February 2026 reveals that while Microsoft provided the foundational capital and cloud infrastructure for OpenAI, its stock has significantly underperformed the Nasdaq and trailed behind rivals like Meta.

As of Nov. 30, 2022, MSFT stock has risen by 61.26% from $249.18 to $401.84 apiece as of Thursday’s close. META, on the other hand, rose from $110.67 to $649.81, a staggering 454.07% surge, in the same period.

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya highlighted this disconnect on Feb. 12, noting the irony of the current market standings. "Microsoft has been the worst-performing stock of the hyperscalers since the November 30, 2022, launch of ChatGPT," Palihapitiya stated.

He added that, looking strictly at stock returns, "you'd have thought that Meta and not Microsoft was the one that owned 25% of OpenAI and ran the cloud for them."

Execution Vs. Infrastructure

The divergence stems from how each giant monetizes AI. While Microsoft has committed to a massive capital expenditure (Capex) cycle—projected to exceed $140 billion annually to build out data centers—Meta has successfully integrated AI to immediately bolster its advertising core.

By early 2026, Meta's revenue growth reached 24%, driven by AI-powered ad targeting; however, the stock was down 0.09% year-to-date. On the other hand, Microsoft faced a 15.03% plummet in the same period.

Investors have grown wary of Microsoft's “capacity constraints,” where demand for Azure AI currently exceeds the company's ability to supply it, despite the record-breaking spending.

The ‘Skill Issue’ Debate

Analysts are now scrutinizing Microsoft’s execution. Reports from firms like SemiAnalysis have labeled these delays a "skill issue," pointing to the slow integration of new AI models compared to more agile competitors.

Furthermore, Microsoft's high “customer concentration risk” remains a concern, with an estimated 45% of its $625 billion cloud backlog tied directly to OpenAI commitments.

As the AI hype war transitions into a battle of bottom-line returns, the market’s verdict is clear: infrastructure ownership is no longer a guarantee of investor alpha.

What Do MSFT and META’s Benzinga Edge Rankings Indicate?

MSFT maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a solid quality ranking, as per Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that META maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate value ranking.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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