Is RIO's Higher Copper Production a Catalyst for Future Growth?

Rio Tinto Group RIO reported solid growth in iron ore production in the fourth quarter of 2025. Per the production results, the company’s consolidated copper output increased 5% year over year in the fourth quarter. The results were supported by strong performance across its assets.

The company is making steady progress across its growth pipeline. In December 2025, it achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona using its proprietary Nuton technology. This marks a significant milestone for Rio Tinto, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.

The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. Employing Nuton, Rio Tinto aims to produce copper with the lowest carbon footprint in the United States at the Johnson Camp.

Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. Rio Tinto’s total copper production reached 883 kilotonne (kt) in 2025, up 11% on a year-over-year basis. The results were supported by the solid ramp-up at the Oyu Tolgoi site and strong performance at the Kennecott mine.

Business Performance of RIO's Peers

Among its major peers, Ero Copper Corp. ERO delivered strong operational performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, with record consolidated copper production reflecting the continued ramp-up of its Brazilian mining portfolio and progress across key assets. During the quarter, Ero Copper produced 19,706 tons of copper in concentrate, with 10,431 tons coming from its established Caraíba Operations. Ero Copper’s mill throughput increased around 15% from the prior quarter, although lower mined grades modestly pressured costs. 

Another peer, Southern Copper Corporation SCCO, has the largest copper reserves in the industry and operates high-quality, world-class assets in investment-grade countries, such as Mexico and Peru. Southern Copper recorded 242,172 tons of copper production in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a marginal year-over-year increase from the prior-year period. For 2025, Southern Copper generated 956,270 tons of copper, about 1.8% lower year over year.

RIO's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Rio Tinto have gained 56.6% in the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 36.4%.

From a valuation standpoint, RIO is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.92X, below the industry’s average of 16.43X. Rio Tinto carries a Value Score of B.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s 2026 earnings has increased 12.7% over the past 60 days.

Rio Tinto currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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