Expeditors' Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in Store for the Stock?

Expeditors International of Washington EXPD is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $1.46 and $2.8 billion, respectively.

The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 13.1%. The consensus mark for the to-be-reported quarter has remained stable over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year contraction of 5.4%.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD’s revenues is pinned at $11.01 billion, implying a 3.9% year-over-year increase. The consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $5.92, indicating a year-over-year increase of 3.5%.

In the trailing four quarters, this transportation company’s earnings beat estimates on each occasion, with the average surprise being 13.9%

Expeditors International of Washington Price and EPS Surprise

Expeditors International of Washington price-eps-surprise | Expeditors International of Washington, Quote

What Our Model Says About EXPD

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Expeditors this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Expeditors has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% (the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.46 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate).

EXPD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note Ahead of EXPD’s Q4 Results

We expect the company’s fourth-quarter performance to have been aided by high revenues despite freight woes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Airfreight Services is pegged at $1.04 billion, above the actual figure reported in the third quarter of 2025. Segmental revenues are likely to have been boosted by the growth of airfreight tonnage on exports, mainly from North and South Asia. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Customs brokerage and other services revenues is currently pegged at $1.07 billion, indicating a 9% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.

The ocean freight and services segment is expected to have performed unimpressively, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter being pegged at $688 million, down both sequentially and year over year, mainly due to significant ocean capacity oversupply compared with demand. The supply-demand imbalance puts downward pressure on rates.

Expeditors’ significant exposure to China is also expected to hurt results, due to weakening Trans-Pacific demand with trade disputes persisting. Dwindling U.S.-China trade volumes on key, high-margin trans-Pacific routes have contracted, in turn hurting results in the to-be-reported quarter. However, Cost cuts are likely to have aided the bottom-line performance. 

Highlights of EXPD’s Q3 Results

Expeditors' third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.64 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40. The bottom line also increased 0.6% year over year. Total revenues of $2.89 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.68 billion but decreased 4% year over year, due to weakness in ocean freight and services.

Q4 Performances of Other Transportation Companies

Delta Air Lines DAL reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 31 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.55 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Earnings decreased 16.22% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.

Revenues in the December-end quarter were $16 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion and increasing 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1.2% year over year to $14.6 billion. Revenue growth was impacted by about 2 points due to the government shutdown.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings’KNX fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 31 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents and declined 13.8% year over year. The reported figure came below the guided range of 34-40 cents.

Total revenues of $1.86 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 million and fell 0.4% year over year. Revenues, excluding truckload and Less-Than-Truckload fuel surcharge, fell 0.6% year over year to $1.66 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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