Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Newmont Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Newmont Corporation NEM is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on Feb. 19. The mining giant is expected to have benefited from higher gold prices in the quarter amid headwinds from weaker production.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.81 per share, suggesting a 29.3% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues currently stands at $5.76 billion, indicating a roughly 2% increase from the year-ago quarter.

NEM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 41.6%, on average.

Q4 Earnings Whispers for NEM

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for NEM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. That is just the case here.

NEM has an Earnings ESP of +10.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping NEM’s Q4 Results

The impact of higher gold prices is expected to be reflected in Newmont’s results for the to-be-reported quarter. Higher realized gold prices are likely to have driven its top line and margins.

Gold prices racked up strong gains in 2025 as worries over the global trade war boosted safe-haven demand. Prices hit new highs driven by a surge in safe-haven demand amid the intense trade tussle, geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar and increased purchases by central banks. 

Heightened geopolitical tensions, including the unrest in Iran with the possibility of U.S. intervention, a weaker greenback, fresh tariff threats and renewed concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve drove bullion to a fresh high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. While gold prices have pulled back from that level, partly due to aggressive profit-taking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar, they remain elevated, currently hovering near $5,000 per ounce. 

Prices of the yellow metal closed nearly 13% higher in the fourth quarter and surged roughly 65% in 2025. Our estimate for the average realized prices of gold for NEM stands at $3,560 per ounce for the fourth quarter, which indicates a 34.7% year-over-year rise.

Newmont’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been impacted by weaker production. Newmont saw lower gold production in the third quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the third quarter, reaching 1.42 million ounces. This marked the third straight quarter of sequential production decline. The lower production was due to reduced grades and planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the end of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. NEM’s strategic asset sales, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, also weighed on production.

For the fourth quarter, NEM expects attributable production to be relatively in line with the third quarter, as new production from Ahafo North and increased output from the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture are expected to be offset by lower production at Yanacocha and lower grades at Ahafo South. NEM expects the quarter’s production to be 1.415 million ounces, indicating a roughly 25% year-over-year decline. The expected production decline is likely to have weighed on its performance.

Newmont Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation

Newmont’s shares have surged 170.1% in the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 143.7% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 14%. Its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation B, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM and Kinross Gold Corporation KGC have rallied 167.5%, 124.9% and 205.4%, respectively, over the same period.

NEM’s One-year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, Newmont is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.14, a roughly 7.8% premium to the peer group average of 14.05X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont and Agnico Eagle currently have a Value Score of C, while Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B.

NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC

Investment Thesis for NEM Stock

Newmont is well-placed for growth with a robust portfolio of projects, which should expand production capacity and extend mine life, thereby driving revenues and profits. The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has also created an industry-leading portfolio and is expected to deliver significant value for its shareholders and generate meaningful synergies. The asset streamlining rooted in Newmont’s objective to concentrate capital on high-return, long-life assets underpins its long-term sustainability.

NEM has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. As a leading gold producer, Newmont stands to benefit from higher gold prices, which should boost its profitability and drive cash flow generation.

However, weaker gold production casts a pall on Newmont’s prospects. The anticipated production decline due to divestments and lower grades could undercut the profitability goals.

Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares

Newmont is well-positioned for future expansion, supported by the solid performance of its Tier 1 assets and a strong pipeline of projects that are expected to lift production capacity and prolong mine life, thereby fueling revenue and earnings growth. Its asset optimization strategy, focused on allocating capital to high-return, long-life operations, further strengthens its long-term outlook. Elevated gold prices should also enhance margins and cash flow generation. However, softer production levels could pressure near-term results. Investors who already own NEM shares may consider maintaining their positions while awaiting greater visibility following the company’s upcoming earnings release.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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