Natural gas prices continue to stabilize near a critical inflection point as export demand reshapes the market’s foundation. Futures hovered around the $3.00 level, briefly dipping before recovering to close the week near $3.05 per MMBtu. A 144 Bcf storage withdrawal, slightly below expectations, weighed on prices in the short term. However, inventories remain well below both the five-year average and last year’s levels. As a result, prices are holding within the $3.00-$3.15 range instead of breaking lower, suggesting stronger underlying support.
At this stage, investors may want to focus on natural gas leveraged names such as Expand Energy EXE, Cheniere Energy LNG and Excelerate Energy EE, which stand to benefit from a more export-anchored pricing regime.
Golden Pass, LNG and Mexico Exports Reinforce the Gas Price Floor
LNG export facilities are now running close to full capacity, changing how U.S. gas prices behave. Exports have become a steady source of demand, reducing the market’s reliance on weather swings. Even when heating demand slows, LNG plants continue to draw in gas, helping keep prices from falling back to the low-$2 levels seen in past downturns.
Golden Pass LNG is the next key development. Located in Sabine Pass, TX, and backed by QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, the project is designed to produce roughly 18 million tons of LNG annually for global markets. Although construction faced delays, the facility is nearing first production.
A new pipeline link will carry up to 1 Bcf per day from the Permian Basin to the terminal, with initial volumes expected in early March. That additional demand will lift feedgas requirements, making sustained prices below $3 less likely as export capacity expands.
From Weather-Driven to Infrastructure-Driven Cycles
The gas market is slowly shifting from being driven mainly by weather to being shaped more by infrastructure and exports. A short cold spell in the East recently boosted demand, but overall U.S. consumption dropped by more than 15 Bcf per day as temperatures warmed. As the shoulder season approaches, brief cold snaps are unlikely to keep prices elevated unless stronger exports and pipeline flows provide support.
Looking ahead to the next year, rising LNG capacity, steady exports to Mexico and production holding near 110 Bcf per day suggest prices may trade within a tighter but more stable range. Storage levels are below average but not alarming, while growing exports continue to support demand.
Final Word
For investors, this evolving structure suggests a shift away from extreme boom-bust volatility toward a more export-centered equilibrium. Companies positioned along the LNG value chain may be particularly well aligned with this transition. Expand Energy, Cheniere Energy and Excelerate Energy offer differentiated exposure to this structural demand story, making them compelling considerations as natural gas enters a more infrastructure-driven era.
Expand Energy: Expand Energy has emerged as the largest natural gas producer in the United States after completing the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger. With a strong footprint in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins, the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is well positioned to benefit from rising natural gas demand fueled by LNG exports, growing AI and data-center power needs, EV adoption and broader electrification trends. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Expand Energy’s 2026 earnings per share indicates a 30% year-over-year improvement. The firm has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 5.4%, on average.
Cheniere Energy: Cheniere Energy holds a clear competitive edge as the first company to receive regulatory approval to export LNG from its 2.6 billion cubic feet per day Sabine Pass terminal. Strong operations and long-term contracts position the company for substantial growth in both revenues and earnings.
Backed by firm gas supply agreements for its Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi facilities, the Zacks Rank #3 company enjoys strong cash flow visibility and solid long-term growth prospects. Notably, Cheniere Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, with the average being 80%.
Excelerate Energy: Headquartered in The Woodlands, TX, the company focuses on LNG infrastructure and services, particularly Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) and associated terminals. Operating across both emerging and developed markets, Excelerate Energy accounts for about 20% of the global FSRU fleet and 5% of total regasification capacity. Established in 2003, the company is now expanding into LNG-to-power and gas distribution, offering reliable and flexible energy solutions worldwide.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excelerate Energy’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 32.4% year-over-year growth. This firm — currently carrying a Zacks Rank of 3 — has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 26.7%, on average.
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Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE): Free Stock Analysis Report Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG): Free Stock Analysis Report Expand Energy Corporation (EXE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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