Can Rigetti's Q4 Earnings Validate Its Roadmap and Commercial Push?

 Rigetti Computing RGTI has announced that it will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 4, 2026, after market close. This is likely to be a pivotal update as investors assess whether recent commercial wins and technical milestones are beginning to translate into tangible momentum. In the third quarter, RGTI’s revenue declined 18% year over year to $1.9 million, while gross margin compressed sharply to 21% due to contract mix and pricing variability.

However, management highlighted $5.7 million in Novera system purchase orders and a $5.8 million AFRL contract that began contributing to revenue in the fourth quarter. With Novera system sales recognized upon shipment and AFRL revenue flowing, the fourth-quarter earnings should show sequential improvement. Investors should watch closely for revenue acceleration, stabilization in gross margins and any indication that commercial demand for on-premises systems is expanding beyond government-driven contracts.

Investors should also pay close attention to the company’s updated roadmap following its recent reset. Rigetti revised the timeline for general availability of its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus-1-108Q, now targeting availability around the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Investors should also look for updates on DARPA Phase B engagement, traction from NVIDIA’s NVQLink hybrid computing ecosystem and commentary on capital allocation, especially as the company exited the third quarter with roughly $600 million in cash and no debt. With operating losses still elevated, the fourth quarter needs to demonstrate not just roadmap ambition, but measurable progress toward scalable commercial revenue.

Peers Updates

Arqit Quantum Inc. ARQQ recently strengthened its commercial traction by broadening deployments of its quantum-safe encryption solutions and expanding integrations with telecom operators and enterprise infrastructure partners. The company is scaling its NetworkSecure platform alongside complementary cryptographic management offerings designed to support organizations preparing for post-quantum security standards.

Arqit has also introduced new capabilities focused on automating encryption discovery and assessing cryptographic risk exposure. With increasing adoption across telecom, government and enterprise segments, Arqit is steadily repositioning itself as a scalable cybersecurity infrastructure player rather than a company centered primarily on quantum research.

Quantum Computing Inc. QUBT has enhanced its commercial profile by advancing its integrated photonics roadmap and building early traction across government and enterprise customers. The company is expanding its thin-film lithium niobate foundry operations while promoting its room-temperature photonic quantum and optimization platforms, including broader cloud-based access to its Dirac systems. Recent capital raises have materially strengthened its balance sheet, giving it greater financial flexibility to scale manufacturing capacity and support ongoing product commercialization efforts.

Rigetti’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of RGTI have gained 7.4% in the last six-month period against the industry’s decline of 18.2%.

From a valuation standpoint, Rigetti trades at a price-to-book ratio of 14.13, above the industry average. RGTI carries a Value Score of F.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti’s 2026 earnings implies a significant 74.3% improvement from the year-ago period.

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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