Shake Shack Prepares to Report Q4 Results: Key Things to Watch

Shake Shack Inc. SHAK is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 financial numbers on Feb. 26, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.1%.

What to Expect From Shak In Q4?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 36 cents per share, up 38.5% year over year. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for the to-be-reported quarter have been revised downward by 4 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $402.4 million, indicating 22.4% growth from the prior-year actual.

Let’s delve deeper to find out how the company’s top and bottom lines will shape up for this earnings season.

Factors at Play for SHAK’s Q4

Shake Shack's top and bottom lines in fourth-quarter 2025 are likely to have benefited from positive traffic trends, menu innovation and value-oriented digital promotions. Increased media investments and brand visibility initiatives are also likely to have helped sustain customer engagement during the period. Shake Shack has been investing in digital transformation, which is crucial to its growth. Digital sales continue to impress investors. During the third quarter of 2025, the company continued to invest heavily in kiosks and digital ordering channels, which were key contributors to comp sales growth. The trend is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.

Shake Shack is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings with momentum pointing to steady execution despite a challenging operating backdrop. Preliminary results indicate fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $400.5 million, reflecting weather-related disruptions late in the quarter, particularly in the Northeast. Same-Shack sales are likely to rise 2.1% in the quarter.

On the profitability front, Shake Shack is expected to deliver resilient margins, with restaurant-level profit in the mid-22% range for the quarter, highlighting continued operational discipline and effective supply-chain strategies to offset elevated beef costs. Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2025 is projected between $208 million and $212 million, signaling improving cost leverage and balanced growth. Unit expansion remains a key catalyst, as it added a meaningful number of company-operated and licensed Shacks during the year, reinforcing long-term growth prospects.

What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model doesn’t predict that Shake Shack is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for this to happen. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.  

Shake Shack has an Earnings ESP of -2.98% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL has an Earnings ESP of +275.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Cracker Barrel’s loss per share is pegged at 10 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.38. CBRL’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average beat of 69.5%.

Sweetgreen, Inc. SG currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s loss per share is pegged at 31 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted loss per share of 25 cents. SG’s earnings missed estimates in the trailing three out of four quarters and reported in line once, the average miss being 33.9%.

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.82% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Dollar General’s earnings are expected to register a 6% year-over-year decline. Dollar General’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 22.9%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research