Vistra to Release Q4 Earnings: How Will the Stock Perform This Season?

Vistra Corp. VST is expected to deliver an improvement in both top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26, before market open.
 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.34 billion, indicating an increase of 32.26% from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus mark for VST’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.51 per share, indicating a 120.18% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for Vistra this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

Vistra Corp. Price and EPS Surprise

Vistra Corp. price-eps-surprise | Vistra Corp. Quote

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Vistra has an Earnings ESP of -48.87%.

Zacks Rank: VST currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

A company from the same industry with the right combination of the two factors for an earnings surprise this season is The AES Corporation (AES. It is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 26, 2026. AES currently has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.54%.

A couple of other stocks from the same industry that reported positive earnings surprise this season are NextEra Energy NEE and WEC Energy Group WEC, among others. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share for NEE and WEC indicates year-over-year growth of 7.82% and 6.26%, respectively.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped VST’s Q4 Earnings

Vistra’s fourth-quarter results are likely to benefit from rising demand for clean electricity across its footprint, driven by the rapid expansion of U.S. data centers, continued industrial reshoring and ongoing electrification in the Permian Basin. Supported by a diversified generation mix and a high-quality nuclear fleet, the company is well positioned to capitalize on accelerating load growth.

The company’s share repurchase program has enhanced shareholder value and supported earnings per share growth, contributing positively to its fourth-quarter performance.

Management plans to maintain this strategy, targeting at least $1 billion in additional repurchases through 2027, which is expected to further strengthen earnings going forward.

Vistra utilizes a hedging program to reduce the impact of market changes and price fluctuations, and 98% of its 2025 generation volume has been hedged. This extensive hedging is likely to have helped to secure its fourth-quarter generation volumes.

VST’s Price Performance

VST’s shares have gained 7% in the past month compared with the industry’s rise of 8.9%.

VST Stock Trading at a Premium

Vistra is currently valued at a premium compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. VST is trading at P/EF12M of 18.86X compared with the industry’s 17.01X.

VST Stock Returns Higher Than the Industry

Return on Equity (“ROE”) is a financial ratio that measures how well a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profits. The company's current ROE indicates that it is using shareholders’ funds more efficiently than peers.

Vistra’s trailing 12-month ROE is 64.04%, higher than the industry average of 10.7%.

Investment Thesis

Vistra is expanding its generation capacity through a mix of organic investments and strategic acquisitions, with the integrated business model offering a clear competitive edge over non-integrated peers.

An increase in nuclear ownership of nearly 970 megawatts (“MW”) through acquiring full control of Vistra Vision will continue to drive the prospects of the company. 
 
In addition, a long-term power purchase agreement for 1,200 MW of carbon-free electricity from the Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant underscores rising demand for clean power and enhances Vistra’s earnings visibility.

Summing Up

Vistra operates in a market where demand for clean electricity is accelerating. To capture this growth, the company is expanding its clean generation portfolio through a mix of acquisitions and organic development. Its disciplined hedging strategy, combined with rising electricity demand from data centers, further boosting its prospects.

However, with the stock currently trading at a premium, it may be prudent for new investors to hold off and wait for a more attractive entry point.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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