OKLO's 1.2 GW META Agreement: Is it a Long Term Bet or Risk?

Oklo Inc. OKLO has put a big marker down in the fast-growing “AI power” conversation with a landmark agreement tied to Meta Platforms’ META expanding data center footprint. The catch is that the story remains long-dated, with multiple regulatory, construction and fuel milestones still ahead.

Why this Deal Matters in the AI Power Narrative

The Meta Platforms agreement is positioned as a turning point for OKLO’s long-term narrative, centered on developing a 1.2-gigawatt advanced nuclear campus in Ohio to support the social media giant’s AI and data center growth. The project would use multiple Aurora reactor units and reflects OKLO’s strategy of selling power and heat directly to customers through long-term agreements, instead of simply licensing its reactor technology.

More importantly, the agreement brings a credible partner at a time when OKLO is still pre-revenue and proving itself through project milestones rather than earnings. This is important because the company’s valuation depends largely on future expectations, making the stock sensitive to any signs of delays or execution missteps.

Project Shape, Timing, and What to Watch Next

The agreement outlines clear timeline markers: pre-construction activities and site studies are expected to begin in 2026, initial power delivery is targeted around 2030, and capacity is expected to expand toward the full 1.2 gigawatts by 2034 using multiple Aurora units. The campus is planned for Pike County, OH, on more than 200 acres owned by OKLO that was formerly a Department of Energy (DOE) site redeveloped with support from the Southern Ohio Diversification Initiative.

Although the timeline stretches out over several years, these milestones still matter. They can build partner confidence, support discussions with future customers, and shape funding plans. Since each Aurora unit is designed to generate between 15 and 75 megawatts — scalable to 100 megawatts or more — the phased approach turns a large, long-term vision into measurable, step-by-step progress.

How the Prepayment Mechanism can Change Financing Optics

A notable feature of the META agreement is a prepayment mechanism designed to provide upfront funding for early development and fuel procurement. In practice, that structure can improve capital visibility by aligning some early project cash needs with a committed partner, reducing a portion of financing uncertainty during the pre-construction phase. That is particularly relevant given the company’s broader emphasis on securing long-lead equipment and fuel components, and using liquidity to support execution.

What this Does Not Fix in the Next Two Years

The near-term bottlenecks remain intact. OKLO’s first project, Aurora-INL, is not allowed to sell power to the grid under current DOE authorization, and full commercial power sales are only expected after Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval, with initial operations targeted for late 2027 to early 2028. As a result, meaningful revenue is unlikely before at least a couple of years. 

The setup is also a patience test for investors, with ongoing spending ahead of revenue and negative earnings estimates through 2026. Management maintained 2025 guidance for cash used in operating activities of $65 to $80 million, reinforcing that expenses are still running ahead of inflows.

A Second Trend Line Beyond Power Sales Radioisotopes

OKLO is also building a second commercialization path via radioisotopes. The company recently signed an agreement with the U.S. DOE to support the design, construction and operation of a Radioisotope Pilot Facility under the department’s Reactor Pilot Program, led by its subsidiary Atomic Alchemy. The goal is to strengthen domestic production of critical medical radioisotopes used in cancer care and research.

The company is taking a step-by-step approach. It plans to focus first on building and operating the pilot facility before moving toward larger commercial plants. While this strategy helps reduce risk and build experience over time, it also means that any isotope revenue expected in early 2026 will likely be small and unlikely to significantly impact near-term financial results.

What the Short Horizon Signals Say About Timing Risk

OKLO carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) on the short-term, one- to three-month horizon, reflecting estimate revision dynamics and the emphasis on schedule and execution risk. The timeline depends on multiple interdependent milestones through 2026, including DOE agreements, licensing steps and construction-related progress, where any delay can push operations beyond current targets and defer revenue.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Fuel adds another layer of timing risk. While OKLO has secured five metric tons of recovered EBR-II fuel for its first plant and is advancing DOE approvals for fuel fabrication at Idaho, high-assay low-enriched uranium pricing and supply remain uncertain, and additional options such as access to up to 20 metric tons of government plutonium are still exploratory.

Closing Framework Credibility Catalysts Versus Execution Gates

The upside anchors are clear: a multi-pronged fuel strategy and the META agreement’s credibility boost, including the prepayment mechanism that supports early development and fuel procurement. Those elements can help OKLO maintain momentum with customers and suppliers as it moves from concept to construction.

The execution gates are just as central: regulatory approvals, construction milestones across multiple tracks, and clearer fuel supply and pricing that can still drive delays and volatility. In that context, investors may also compare the broader energy landscape through companies such as Constellation Energy CEG and Cameco Corporation CCJ, both considered among industry peers, as the market weighs near-term earnings visibility against long-duration infrastructure narratives.

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