EMCOR Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

EMCOR Group, Inc. EME is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, its earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Moreover, both the metrics increased year over year by 13.3% and 16.4%, respectively. 

This specialty contracting services provider beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 12.4%.

EME: Earnings & Revenue Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EME’s fourth-quarter earnings has increased to $6.68 from $6.66 in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 5.7% jump on a year-over-year basis.

EMCOR Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

EMCOR Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | EMCOR Group, Inc. Quote

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $4.28 billion, calling for a 13.6% year-over-year rise.

Factors Influencing EMCOR’s Q4 Performance

EMCOR's fourth-quarter 2025 revenues and earnings are expected to have increased year over year, driven by steady demand across several end markets. The company is likely to continue benefiting from strength in data centers, network and communications, healthcare, water and wastewater and traditional manufacturing. 

Data center-related activity is expected to have continued supporting growth, backed by a healthy backlog and favorable project timing. Manufacturing and industrial demand is likely to have remained stable, benefiting from ongoing onshoring and reshoring trends. Disciplined project selection and productivity-focused execution are expected to have supported the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the U.S. Electrical Construction and Facilities Services segment’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1,372 million, indicating an increase from $933 million reported in the prior-year quarter. The segment is likely to have benefited from continued demand in data center, network and communications projects. However, margin pressure from labor ramp-up in newer markets and backlog amortization related to recent acquisitions is expected to have persisted.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the U.S. Mechanical Construction and Facilities Services segment’s fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $1,777 million versus $1,661 billion reported a year ago. Revenues are expected to have been supported by higher activity from data center and manufacturing projects. This growth is likely to have been partly offset by uneven demand in high-tech manufacturing projects.

For the U.S. Building Services unit’s revenues, estimates are currently pegged at $778 million, up from $756 million reported a year ago. Growth may have been driven by mechanical services and improved execution. Pressure on site-based services is likely to have limited the upside.

For the U.S. Industrial Services business, estimates for revenues are pegged at $313 million compared with $297 million reported in the prior year. The segment is expected to have gained from a favorable mix and higher shop services activity. At the same time, delays in large field projects and softer energy-related demand may weigh on results.

The consensus mark for the U.K. Building Services segment’s revenues is pegged at $45 million, indicating a decrease from $107 million reported in the prior year. Lower revenues are expected due to reduced activity levels and ongoing portfolio changes related to the planned divestiture.

What the Zacks Model Says About EME

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for EMCOR this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

EMCOR currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

EME currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. STRL currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.01% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Sterling’s earnings are expected to register an 82.2% year-over-year increase. Sterling’s earnings have topped in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14%.

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. ORN currently has an Earnings ESP of +33.33% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Orion’s earnings are expected to register a 62.5% year-over-year decrease. Orion’s earnings topped estimates in all the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 241.4%. 

Masco MAS currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Masco’s earnings are expected to register a 1.2% year-over-year increase. Masco’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in two occasions, the average surprise being 3.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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