Mizuho Revises Kraft Heinz (KHC) Valuation after CAGNY Presentations

The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) is included among the 14 Best Affordable Dividend Stocks to Buy According to Analysts.

On February 23, Mizuho lowered its price recommendation on The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) to $25 from $27. It kept a Neutral rating on the stock. The firm adjusted its models for food producers after the recent CAGNY presentations.

J.P. Morgan analysts Thomas Palmer and Brandon Cohen took a more cautious stance. On February 12, they downgraded the stock to Underweight, pointing to a weak outlook and the potential cost required to restart growth. In their view, Kraft Heinz may continue to face challenges that could push out a recovery in sales volumes through 2026. If the company needs to spend more than expected to support struggling segments, financial flexibility could tighten. They noted that dividend payments are projected to use nearly 80% of free cash flow next year. That leaves limited room for error.

The analysts also pointed out that other food companies, including General Mills, have faced similar cost pressures. They highlighted that Kraft Heinz’s North American volumes have fallen more than 3% in each of the past 19 quarters. This has happened even as the company increased spending on innovation, marketing, pricing, and brand upgrades. Some of the decline reflects softer demand across categories, though that pressure has eased somewhat. More concerning, they said, are ongoing market share losses that show little sign of improving.

Nielsen data supports this view. Volumes are down in 13 of Kraft Heinz’s largest US retail categories, and the company is losing share in 10 of them, including packaged lunch meats. Palmer and Cohen acknowledged that higher marketing investment could help over time. At the same time, they cautioned that these efforts often take longer to produce measurable gains. Kraft Heinz expects its investments to begin lifting volumes in the second quarter and build momentum in the second half of the year. The analysts questioned whether the company’s 2026 outlook may prove too optimistic.

The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) manufactures and markets food and beverage products globally. Its portfolio is organized across eight platforms: Taste Elevation, Easy Ready Meals, Substantial Snacking, Desserts, Hydration, Cheese, Coffee, and Meats.

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