Claims that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) consistently "dumps" at 10 a.m. ET have gained traction online, but one economist says the data do not support a systematic pattern.
‘10 AM Dump' Not Backed By Data
Alex Krüger on Thursday pushed back on the popular narrative after analyzing price action since Jan. 1.
He said there is no statistical evidence of a recurring selloff tied specifically to the 10 a.m. U.S. market window.
Kruger pointed to data from the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT), which shows a cumulative return of +0.9% during the 10:00–10:30 a.m. period and –1% during the 10:00–10:15 window.
He described those figures as noisy rather than indicative of a predictable daily drop.
More importantly, he said the price behaviour closely mirrors movements in the Nasdaq Composite at market open, suggesting the volatility reflects broader risk-asset repricing rather than a Bitcoin-specific phenomenon.
When asked whether any other time windows show consistently negative returns, Krüger cited 9:30 a.m., the equity market open, and 3:45 p.m. as key periods.
However, he noted that performance during those windows depends heavily on the prevailing market regime.
Inside The Allegations Of Algorithmic Selling
Separately, Bitcoin key opinion leader Justin Bechler argued that some of the 10 a.m. price drops appeared algorithmic, triggering liquidations before reversing later in the session.
He cited December trading sessions in which Bitcoin allegedly fell from $89,700 to $87,700 within minutes of the open, wiping out $171 million in long positions before rebounding.
According to Bechler, this pattern repeated frequently over that stretch.
Bechler also referenced commentary from the co-founders of Glassnode, who suggested that daily flash crashes subsided after lawsuit filings against Terraform Labs became public early last year, only to reappear in the third quarter of 2025.
He further speculated that Jane Street, a major ETF market maker and authorized participant, had both the inventory and structural access to execute coordinated selling during thin liquidity windows.
The pattern reportedly paused amid legal scrutiny before later resuming, fuelling additional speculation.
Despite those claims, Krüger maintains that the broader data set does not confirm a consistent, engineered 10 a.m. selloff, and that macro-driven volatility at the U.S. market open remains the more plausible explanation.
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