A month has gone by since the last earnings report for United Parcel Service (UPS). Shares have added about 9.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UPS due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for United Parcel Service, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Earnings Beat at UPS in Q4
United Parcel Service reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein the company’s earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Quarterly earnings per share (excluding 28 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.38 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.22 but declined 13.5% year over year. Revenues of $24.4 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $24 billion but decreased 3.3% year over year.
Moreover, management provided upbeat full-year 2026 sales guidance, projecting revenues of approximately $89.7 billion, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $87.9 billion as well as the 2025 reported figure of $88.7 billion.
Other Aspects of Q4 Earnings Report
U.S. Domestic Package revenues of $16.8 billion decreased 3.2% year over year, owing to an expected decline in volume. Revenue per piece grew 8.3% year over year. Segmental operating profit (adjusted) fell 2.7% year over year to $1.71 billion. The adjusted operating margin for the segment was 10.2%.
Revenues in the International Package division totaled $5.05 billion, which increased 2.5% year over year, owing to a 7.1% increase in revenue per piece. Segmental operating profit (adjusted) totaled $908 million, down 14.5% year over year. The adjusted operating margin for the segment was 18%.
Supply Chain Solutions’ revenues of $2.67 billion decreased 12.7% year over year, owing to a decline in volume in the Mail Innovations business. Operating profit (on an adjusted basis) fell 2.8% year over year to $276 million. The adjusted operating margin for the segment was 10.3%.
The overall adjusted operating margin was 8.8%.
Remaining Aspects of UPS’ 2026 Outlook
Capital expenditures are estimated to be around $3 billion, with dividend payments expected to be around $5.4 billion (subject to board approval). The effective tax rate is expected to be around 23%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -21.18% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, UPS has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, UPS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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