Why Is JetBlue (JBLU) Up 10.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for JetBlue Airways (JBLU). Shares have added about 10.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is JetBlue due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Q4 Loss at JetBlue

JetBlue reported a fourth-quarter 2025 loss of 49 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 45 cents. In the year-ago quarter, JBLU reported a loss of 21 cents per share.

Operating revenues of $2.24 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2% and decreased 1.5% year over year. Passenger revenues, accounting for the bulk of the top line (91.5%), declined 2.2% year over year to $2.05 billion despite strong demand for premium travel.  Other revenues rose 7.9% year over year to $191 million.

Revenues per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) increased 0.2% year over year to 14.13 cents. Passenger revenues per available seat mile declined 0.6% year over year to 12.93 cents. The average fare at JetBlue remained flat on a year-over-year basis at $211.23. The yield per passenger mile decreased 0.3% year over year. 

Consolidated traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) declined 2.5% year over year. Capacity (measured in available seat miles) fell by 1.6% year over year. Consolidated load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) declined 0.7 percentage points to 81.5%, as the traffic drop was more than the capacity reduction. Total operating costs (on a reported basis) inched up 3.7% year over year to $2.34 billion. Expenses on salaries, wages and benefits increased 5.5% year over year. Maintenance, materials and repairs expenses gained 4.1% year over year.

The average fuel price per gallon (including related taxes) was $2.51, up 1.6% year over year. JBLU’s operating expenses per available seat mile (“CASM”) increased 5.4% year over year. Excluding fuel, CASM rose 6.7% to 11.49 cents.

JBLU’s Outlook

For first-quarter 2026, capacity is anticipated to increase in the band of 0.5-3.5% from first-quarter 2025 actuals. CASM, excluding fuel and special items, is predicted to climb in the range of 3.5-5.5%. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $200 million. RASM is forecasted to be either flat or gain up to 4% from the first-quarter 2025 actuals. The average fuel cost per gallon is estimated to be between $2.27 and $2.42.

For 2026, capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 900 million. Interest expenses are anticipated to be around $580 million. CASM, excluding fuel and special items, is predicted to climb in the band of 1-3%. Capacity is forecasted to rise between 2.5% and 4.5% from 2025 actuals. RASM is projected to increase in the 2-5% band from 2025 actuals.


 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -15.39% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, JetBlue has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, JetBlue has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

JetBlue belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Another stock from the same industry, Alaska Air Group (ALK), has gained 3.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Alaska Air reported revenues of $3.63 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.8%. EPS of $0.43 for the same period compares with $0.97 a year ago.

Alaska Air is expected to post a loss of $0.81 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -4%.

Alaska Air has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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