It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Waste Management (WM). Shares have added about 4.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Waste Management due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
WM Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates
WM reported dismal fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
WM’s quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.93 per share missed the consensus mark by 1% while it gained 13.5% year over year. Total revenues of $6.3 billion missed the consensus mark by 1.2% but increased 7.1% from the year-ago quarter.
WM’s Quarterly Numbers in Detail
The Collection segment generated $3.9 billion in revenues, a 4.9% hike from the year-ago quarter, meeting the Zack Consensus Estimate. The Landfill segment registered $910 million in revenues, increasing 6.2% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $956.1 million. Total revenues in the Transfer segment grew 6.1% to $381 million, outpacing the consensus mark of $375.1 million. The Recycling Processing and Sales segment’s revenues dipped 10.8% to $355 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $414.3 million.
WM Renewable Energy registered revenues of $157 million, a 68.8% upsurge from the year-ago quarter and outpacing the consensus mark of $148 million. The WM Healthcare Solutions, and Corporate and Other segments in total recorded $621 million in revenues, witnessing 52.2% year-over-year growth. It missed the consensus estimate of $627 million. The figures are after the alignment of the intercompany adjustment.
The adjusted operating EBITDA was $2 billion, up 15.7% from the year-ago quarter. The adjusted operating EBITDA margin increased 240 basis points to 31.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Cash Flow of WM
WM generated $1.7 billion in cash from operating activities in the fourth quarter of 2025 and its capital expenditure was $684 million. The free cash flow was $823 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, $333 million in cash dividends were distributed to shareholders.
WM's 2026 Outlook
For 2026, the company expects revenue of $26.43-$26.63 billion. Adjusted operating EBITDA is expected to be $8.15-$8.25 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
At this time, Waste Management has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Waste Management has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Waste Management, Inc. (WM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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