Carlyle Beats Inflows Target in 2025, Sets Bold 2028 Goals

At its 2026 shareholder update, The Carlyle Group Inc. CG highlighted that the company’s disciplined execution is driving a tangible, record-breaking performance. Despite navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment, CG emphasized 2025 as a milestone year, marked by standout financial and operational achievements, while outlining a well-defined and ambitious roadmap for growth through 2028.

The headline story is performance. In 2025, Carlyle achieved record fee related earnings (FRE), FRE margin, assets under management (AUM), Global Wealth AUM, capital markets fees and industry-leading realization activity. The firm also recorded its third-best year ever in inflows, highlighting broad-based momentum across strategies. These results reflect the impacts of a focused strategic growth plan, an evolved operating model and a strengthened leadership team.

Financially, the trajectory has been compelling. FRE grew from $859 million in 2023 to $1.236 billion in 2025, seeing a roughly 20% CAGR. The FRE margin expanded approximately 1,000 basis points from 37% in 2023 to 47% in 2025. Distributable Earnings per share rose from $3.24 in 2023 to $4.02 in 2025, witnessing an 11% CAGR.

Focused Strategy Drives Record Results

Fee revenues climbed to $2.64 billion in 2025 from $2.31 billion in 2023, while transaction fees increased sharply from $80 million in 2023 to $225 million in 2025, demonstrating the earnings power of a scaled, diversified platform.

Growth CAGR

For 2025, inflows reached $54 billion versus a $40-billion target, marking a $14-billion outperformance. This credibility in execution strengthens the foundation for the next phase of growth.

Carlyle has set clear 2028 targets. The firm aims to generate more than $200 billion in inflows from 2026 through 2028, suggesting a rise from the $158 billion registered over 2023-2025. The FRE margin is targeted to exceed 50%, up from 47% in 2025. FRE is expected to reach $1.9 billion or more, and management fees are projected to exceed $2.8 billion. Distributable earnings per share are targeted at $6 or more by 2028, seeing a more than 15% three-year CAGR from the 2025 reported level. These goals signal confidence in scaling earnings quality and durability.

2028 Targets

A major driver of Carlyle’s next growth phase is the transformation of its client business. The company has evolved from a single-product focus to a client-centric, multi-product solutions platform, integrating Global Wealth business more deeply and expanding evergreen offerings. Over the past two years, the firm raised $95 billion across 30 strategies, beating its 2025 inflow target by 35%.

The wealth channel represents a significant long-term opportunity. With private markets comprising only about 3% of high-net-worth portfolios, allocations are expected to rise materially. Carlyle has already tripled the evergreen AUM since 2023, expanded its dedicated wealth team and broadened distribution relationships, while building out diversified private credit, global private equity evergreen vehicles and multi-manager secondaries to meet growing demand.

Global Credit business is another core growth engine, managing $211 billion in AUM, including $100 billion in perpetual capital, and delivering strong earnings growth. With expanding opportunities across asset-backed finance, infrastructure debt, hybrid capital and opportunistic credit, the firm is targeting $90 billion or more of inflows in Global Credit over the next three years, reinforcing its push toward more durable, margin-rich earnings streams.

Overall, Carlyle is structurally reshaping its business toward more durable, margin-rich earnings streams. If execution continues at the pace demonstrated over the past two years, the firm’s 2028 targets will represent not just aspirations, but the next milestone in a sustained multi-year expansion.

CG Peers Growth Outlook

At the 34th Annual Financial Services Conference hosted by Bank of America, Michael Arougheti, co-founder and CEO of Ares Management ARES, delivered an optimistic outlook on the firm’s prospects for 2026. Management indicated that deal momentum is accelerating, supported by a record-high transaction pipeline as of January 2026, signaling a rebound in private-market activity following a period, marked by valuation mismatches and elevated interest rates.

On the financial front, Ares Management reaffirmed its medium-term targets of generating 16-20% or more annual organic growth in FRE and more than 20% annual growth in realized income (RI). The company also reiterated its disciplined capital return framework. Private credit remains central to ARES Management’s growth strategy, with management emphasizing disciplined origination, selective underwriting and the advantages of scale.

At its 2024 investor day held in April, KKR & Co. KKR laid out a plan to scale its core businesses as it aims to reach at least $1 trillion in AUM by 2030. KKR & Co. intends to build on its existing asset management, insurance and strategic holding units to reach the milestone.

KKR & Co.’s management expects FRE per share of more than $4.50 in 2026. Total operating earnings per share are projected to be more than $7, while adjusted net income per share is anticipated to be $7-$8.

Carlyle’s Price Performance & Zacks Rank

CG shares has gained 9.3% in the past year agiants the industry’s fall of 12%.

Price Performance

Carlyle currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research