Earlier this week, Cathie Wood highlighted the intensifying competition for Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) as ARK Investment Management forecasts that custom AI chips could command more than one-third of the compute market by the end of the decade.
Frank Downing, ARK's director of research for next-generation internet, said in a post on X that the firm expects "over a third of the compute market will be custom silicon by 2030."
He defined custom as non-GPU chips — effectively alternatives to products from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) — though he noted that industry lines are "blurring."
non-GPU in this case
— Frank Downing (@downingARK) February 28, 2026
I would say non-Nvidia/AMD but now that Nvidia effectively bought Groq lines are bluring
"Everyone knows Google's TPU, but Amazon is the sleeping giant that is waking up," Downing wrote.
A chart shared by Downing shows traditional servers rapidly losing share to accelerated computing, with application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs, gaining ground alongside GPUs through 2030.
We predict that over a third of the compute market will be custom silicon by 2030. This announcement is another step in that direction.
— Frank Downing (@downingARK) February 27, 2026
Everyone knows Google's TPU, but Amazon is the sleeping giant that is waking up.
Have a blog coming soon that dives deeper into this. https://t.co/aR7QgFFcf7 pic.twitter.com/wuv6DwwJFP
Wood amplified the message, sharing the post and adding: "Competition for Nvidia."
Competition for Nvidia. https://t.co/siQ7FHsFta
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) March 1, 2026
The comments follow a multi-year partnership between Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and OpenAI.
Amazon committed up to $50 billion to the ChatGPT maker and expanded an existing compute agreement by $100 billion over eight years.
A key element of the deal centers on OpenAI's use of Amazon's custom Trainium chips, including next-generation versions expected in 2027. OpenAI will consume roughly 2 gigawatts of Trainium capacity, underscoring the scale of the commitment.
Meanwhile, Alphabet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google continues positioning its Tensor Processing Units as an alternative to Nvidia's GPUs, with reports that Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) has agreed to lease TPUs for advanced AI development.
Meanwhile, Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, marking a 73% increase from a year ago and surpassing the Street consensus estimate of $66.0 billion.
For the first quarter, the company projected revenue between $76.44 billion and $79.56 billion, well above analysts' $71.96 billion estimate.
Price Action: Nvidia shares are down 7.41% in the past five days. In the after-hours trading, the shares were up by 0.34%, reaching $177.80.
Nvidia ranks high on quality in Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, reflecting a strong long-term uptrend, though its short- and mid-term price trend appears weaker.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo: bluestork / Shutterstock
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