AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) on Monday revealed topline results from the Phase 3 AFFIRM study evaluating the efficacy of risankizumab in treating Crohn’s disease. This news comes as broader markets are experiencing a mixed day, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the S&P 500 declining 0.31%.
Crohn’s disease is a chronic, systemic disease that manifests as inflammation within the gastrointestinal tract, most commonly in the area between the small intestine (ileum) and the colon, causing persistent diarrhea and abdominal pain.
The company’s AFFIRM study showed that 55% of patients treated with risankizumab achieved clinical remission at week 12, compared to 30% in the placebo group.
Additionally, 44% of patients experienced an endoscopic response, significantly higher than the 14% in the placebo group, reinforcing risankizumab’s potential as a leading treatment option for Crohn’s disease.
The study included a predominantly treatment-refractory population, with 65% of participants having failed two or more advanced therapies. These findings highlight the effectiveness of risankizumab in a challenging patient demographic, indicating AbbVie’s ongoing commitment to innovation in immunology.
Competitive Landscape
William Blair on Monday noted, “The positive results are strategically important for Skyrizi's competitive positioning against Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) Tremfya.”
Analyst Matt Phipps highlights some investor concerns that Tremfya's subq induction and maintenance regimen across both Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis (UC) indications may be driving market share over Skyrizi, which currently uses IV induction followed by subq maintenance dosing.
Analyst Phipps added that with the positive AFFIRM results, AbbVie now has the opportunity to pursue a fully subcutaneous Skyrizi induction regimen in CD, narrowing the convenience gap versus Tremfya.
Despite competition from Tremfya in IBD, management has been observing stable capture rates for Skyrizi, with a roughly 75% in-play capture rate in the frontline IBD setting.
William Blair expects Skyrizi will continue to be a key growth driver for the company and remain competitive within the IL-23 class.
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently trading 4.5% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 7.2% above its 100-day SMA, indicating a strong upward trend. Over the past 12 months, shares have increased significantly and are currently positioned closer to their 52-week highs than lows, reflecting robust investor confidence.
The RSI is at 44.45, which is considered neutral territory, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at this time. Meanwhile, MACD is at 0.15, below its signal line at 0.22, indicating some bearish pressure on the stock.
The combination of neutral RSI and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum for AbbVie, indicating that while the stock has shown strength, it may face some headwinds in the short term.
- Key Resistance: $244.50
- Key Support: $220.00
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $241.24. Recent analyst moves include:
- RBC Capital: Initiated with Outperform (Target $260.00) (Feb. 25)
- Barclays: Initiated with Overweight (Target $275.00) (Feb. 20)
- Piper Sandler: Overweight (Raises Target to $299.00) (Feb. 18)
ABBV Price Action: AbbVie shares were up 0.32% at $232.82 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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