CF Industries Benefits From Strong Nitrogen Demand and Higher Prices

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF gains on healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices amid headwinds from higher natural gas costs.

CF Industries, which is among the prominent players in the fertilizer space along with Nutrien Ltd. NTR, The Mosaic Company MOS and Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI, is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered. 

Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. Brazil and India are expected to remain the largest importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic demand.

Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the fourth quarter, net sales rose roughly 23% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion. The average selling prices for most of the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.

CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the fourth quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year. CF Industries repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter, and also bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.

The company, however, faces headwinds from higher natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. It saw a notable rise in natural gas costs during 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $3.20 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in the fourth quarter from $2.43 per MMBtu a year ago. The same for 2025 increased to $3.31 per MMBtu from $2.40 per MMBtu in the year-ago period, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins.

CF, in its fourth-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories remain below historical averages. 
 
Another prominent fertilizer maker, Nutrien, expects potash sales volumes to be 14.1–14.8 million tons in 2026, in line with the company’s global shipment estimates. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 9.2–9.7 million tons, factoring in no additional production from the Trinidad and New Madrid facility. Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 2.4–2.6 million tons, supported by operational improvement actions. 

Mosaic expects potash sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 to be between 2 million tons and 2.2 million tons. MOS forecasts phosphate sales volumes to be 1.7-1.9 million tons for the first quarter. 

Intrepid Potash saw a 15% increase in potash sales volumes to 62,000 tons in the third quarter. The solid increase in Intrepid Potash’s sales volumes was driven by a rise in production. IPI expects solid fertilizer demand driven by an improvement in the agriculture market and strong potash market fundamentals. IPI is slated to report fourth-quarter results on March 4.

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