The S&P 500 closed lower three of the last four sessions, finishing Tuesday at 6,816.63 to clock its weakest close since late November and below where it started the year. Concerns around a prolonged U.S.-Iran war unsettled investors even as President Donald Trump‘s comments offered some respite.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd remains bearish. The March 4 market sits at 77% “Down,” 23% “Up,” with $28,301 in volume placed against whether the S&P will open up or down on Wednesday.
Why That Number Matters
Global benchmark Brent crude gained 5.8% Tuesday to $82.14 per barrel — its highest since July 2024, having surged nearly 20% in two sessions.
For the S&P, that matters in one specific way: higher oil prices mean stickier inflation, which means the Fed stays on hold longer, removing the rate-cut safety net markets have been leaning on all year. The index has shed roughly 4% from its late-January peak with no obvious catalyst to reverse it. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped to 23.57 — its highest level since November.
On Wednesday, investors will also be watching the ADP private payrolls report for February. The Dow Jones consensus calls for 48,000 jobs added last month, up from 22,000 in January. Earnings from Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) are also due after markets close.
The Bull Countercase
Tuesday’s close actually told a more resilient story than the intraday lows suggested, as the index recovered most of its session losses after Trump announced the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, taking the worst-case supply disruption scenario partially off the table. Trump also said he had ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for all maritime trade transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of just 0.9% in the month following major geopolitical events, before gaining 3.4% over the following six months, according to a CNN report that cites data from strategists at Carson Group.
S&P 500 futures are currently at 6,782, down 42.75 points or 0.63%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The benchmark index opened Tuesday sharply down at 6,800.26, meaning Polymarket punters called it correctly. “Down” resolved on $420,090 in traded volume.
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