Pre-Markets Boosted by Benign ADP Jobs Report

Wednesday, March 4th, 2026

Pre-market indexes are pushing higher this morning, bolstered somewhat by a not-disappointing private-sector employment report and fighting heroically off -2% levels during yesterday’s trading session. Currently, the Dow and the Nasdaq are both up +120 points while the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 are both up +20.

Yesterday morning, war fears gripped the market — at least until fears were eased about bringing oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz now that the U.S. and Israel have attacked Iran. The Strait brings roughly 20 million barrels of oil PER DAY, so you can imagine how disruptive a closure of this important thoroughfare would be to the global energy market, which is still majorly dependent on oil.
 

ADP Brings +63K Private-Sector Jobs, Better than Expected

Automatic Data Processing ADP, the payroll giant which reports on private-sector employment the first Wednesday of (almost) every month, posted +63K new private-sector jobs having been filled in February, the highest level since July of last year’s +104K. The revision to January was cut in half — from +22K originally reported to +11K today.

Goods-producing jobs in the private sector reached a respectable +16K for the month — in fact, Construction jobs alone accounted for +19K (augmented by another drop in Manufacturing employment) — while Services made up +47K. Current estimates for Friday’s non-farm payroll report from the U.S. government are currently +50K.

Small companies (sub-50 employees) made up the lion’s share of new jobs created last month, +60K, while large firms (500+ employees) rebounded from a negative figure the previous month to +10K this time around. Medium-sized businesses actually lost -7K for the month. And as ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson pointed out this morning, jobs at smaller companies tend to pay less than larger firms.

This plays out in the industry breakdown, as well, as Education/Healthcare jobs led the way once again at +58K, followed by Construction at +19K and Information Services +11K. This last, by the way, hampers the narrative that AI has invaded the domestic workforce in any meaningful way; if it did, we’d for sure see that show up in Info Systems hires. Professional/Business Services last month actually shed -30K positions, another sign the labor force has been tacking cheaper.

Ms Richardson called this “a very inert labor market” based on this data, “benefiting small firms,” which offer lower paying jobs than, say, large business consulting companies. This can be seen in ADP’s unique metric where Job Stayers stood to gain +4.5% on their income, whereas Job Changers came in at +6.3% — the slimmest gap on record. It also helps explain why this “low hire/low fire” environment is keeping wages fairly stagnant, even as unemployment does not appear to be a major near-term concern.
 

Earnings Update This Hump Day

Ahead of today’s open, Abercrombie & Fitch ANF beat earnings estimates by +3.37% to $3.68 per share, but shares are falling -4% in early trading based on slowing revenue growth concerns. This is advancing the apparel retailer’s move into the red, now down -25% year to date. For more on ANF’s earnings, click here.

Meanwhile, Bath & Body Works BBWI shares are rising +4% on Q4 outperformance on both top and bottom lines, adding to the company’s +11.7% gains from the start of the year. Earnings of $2.05 per share amounted to an impressive +15.8% earnings beat. For more on BBWI’s earnings, click here.

After today’s close, semiconductor major Broadcom AVGO and American Eagle Outfitters AEO will be putting out quarterly results, to name just a couple. Broadcom, which has no earnings misses on its chart going back 12 years (though it often doesn’t beat by double-digits) is expected to demonstrate earnings growth of +27% year over year and +29% on revenues. Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)-rated AEO is expected to fetch +31.5% earnings growth on +8% on revenues.

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