MPLX LP (MPLX) Up 6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for MPLX LP (MPLX). Shares have added about 6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MPLX LP due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for MPLX LP before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

MPLX Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates

MPLX reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.17 per unit, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 and increased from $1.07 from the year-ago quarter.

Total quarterly revenues of $3.25 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.32 billion and rose $3.06 billion from the prior-year level.

The strong quarterly earnings were primarily driven by increased throughput in oil and product pipelines as well as natural gas and NGL gathering.

Segmental Highlights

MPLX’s adjusted EBITDA from the Crude Oil and Products Logistics segment increased almost 5% to $1.18 billion from $1.12 billion a year ago. The improvement was mainly backed by a $37 million benefit related to a FERC tariff ruling in November and higher rates, despite higher operating expenses. Pipeline throughputs in the quarter were 5.91 million barrels per day (mbpd), up 1% from the prior-year quarter’s 5.86 mbpd. Terminal throughputs in the quarter were 3.08 mbpd, down 2% from the prior-year quarter’s 3.13 mbpd.

Adjusted EBITDA from the Natural Gas and NGL Services segment amounted to $629 million, down almost 2% from $639 million in the year-ago quarter. The underperformance was owing to the divestiture of non-core gathering and processing assets and a decline in natural gas liquids prices. These negativities were partially offset by contributions from recently acquired assets and increased volumes.

Gathering throughput volumes averaged 6.85 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 2% increase from the year-ago level of 6.73 Bcf/d. Natural gas processed volumes totaled 9.83 Bcf/d, marking a decline of 1% from the year-ago level of 9.93 Bcf/d..

Costs & Expenses

Total costs and expenses were $1.77 billion, up from $1.72 billion a year ago. The increase was primarily due to operating expenses, including purchased product costs.

Cash Flow

Distributable cash flow for the quarter totaled $1.42 billion, providing 1.3X distribution coverage, down from $1.48 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The adjusted free cash flow improved to $1.57 billion from $1.32 billion in the corresponding period of 2024.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec. 31, 2025, the partnership’s cash and cash equivalents were $2.14 billion, and its total debt amounted to $25.65 billion.

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MPLX expects to sustain mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth while continuing to invest in its Permian and Marcellus basin operations. Management reaffirmed its focus on portfolio optimization through acquisitions such as the Delaware Basin sour gas treating business and divestitures like the Rockies gathering and processing assets to strengthen long-term growth.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, MPLX LP has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, MPLX LP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

MPLX LP belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines industry. Another stock from the same industry, Kinder Morgan (KMI), has gained 12.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Kinder Morgan reported revenues of $4.51 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.1%. EPS of $0.39 for the same period compares with $0.32 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Kinder Morgan is expected to post earnings of $0.37 per share, indicating a change of +8.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +3.1% over the last 30 days.

Kinder Morgan has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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