ATI (ATI) Up 26.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for ATI (ATI). Shares have added about 26.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ATI due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

ATI's Earnings Surpass Estimates in Q4, Sales Stable Y/Y

ATI recorded a profit of $96.6 million or 69 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the year-ago quarter's profit of $137.1 million or 94 cents. 

ATI posted adjusted earnings of 93 cents, up 18% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 79 cents. Adjusted earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents. 

The company’s net sales in the fourth quarter were $1,177.1 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,197.7 million. Net sales were essentially flat year over year. 

Segment Highlights

HPMC reported sales of $645.9 million in the fourth quarter, up 2% year over year. However, the figure fell short of the consensus estimate of $656 million. HPMC's segment EBITDA rose 22.23% year over year to $155 million.  

AA&S recorded sales of $531.2 million, down approximately 1.4% from the prior-year figure of $538.5 million. The figure missed the consensus estimate of $543 million. The segment's EBITDA for the quarter was $98.5 million, up 12% year over year. 

Financials

In the fourth quarter of 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $416.7 million, down 42.2% year over year. The company's long-term debt was $1,718.3 million, up 0.2% from the prior-year level. 

Outlook

For the first quarter of 2026, adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $216 million and $226 million, while full-year 2026 guidance is within $975 million-$1,025 million. Adjusted earnings per share are projected at 83-89 cents for the first quarter and $3.99 to $4.27 for the full year. Adjusted free cash flow for the full year is estimated between $430 million and $490 million. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, ATI has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise ATI has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

ATI is part of the Zacks Aerospace - Defense Equipment industry. Over the past month, Woodward (WWD), a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.

Woodward reported revenues of $996.45 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +29%. EPS of $2.17 for the same period compares with $1.35 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Woodward is expected to post earnings of $2.00 per share, indicating a change of +18.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +3.1% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Woodward. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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