CME (CME) Up 6.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CME Group (CME). Shares have added about 6.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CME due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for CME Group Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

CME Group Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates, ADV Rises Y/Y

CME Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.77, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7%. The bottom line improved 9.9% year over year. 

Quarterly results reflected improved revenues due to higher clearing and transaction fees and market data and information services as well as higher trading volumes.

Performance in Detail

CME Group’s revenues of $1.6 billion increased 8.1% year over year. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to higher clearing and transaction fees (up 7.8%) and market data and information services (up 14.5%). The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.3%.

Total expenses rose 8.8% year over year to $629.1 million, attributable to higher compensation and benefits, technology, professional fees, and outside services, as well as licensing and other fee agreements. 

Operating income increased 7.7% from the prior-year quarter to $1 billion. 

Average daily volume (ADV) was a record 27.4 million contracts, up 7% year over year. This was due to higher quarterly volumes in Equities and Metals. Agricultural ADV reached 1.8 million contracts, up 2% year on year. Interest Rate and Forex ADV declined 2% and 12%, respectively. The total average rate per contract was 70.7 cents.

Full-Year Highlights

Adjusted earnings were $11.16 per share, up 15.4% year over year. Earnings missed the consensus estimate by 2 cents. 

Revenues were a record $6.5 billion, up 6% year over year. Revenues came in line with the consensus estimate.

Operating income was $4.2 billion, up 7.7% year over year.

Financial Update

As of Dec 31, 2025, CME Group had $4.5 billion of cash and marketable securities, up 51.1% from the 2024-end level. 

Long-term debt was $3.4 billion, up 27.7% from 2024-end. 

As of Dec 31, 2025, CME had shareholders' equity worth $28.7 billion, up 8.5% from the end of 2024.

Capital Deployment

CME Group paid out $3.9 billion in dividends during 2025, taking the payout to $30 billion since the implementation of the variable dividend policy in early 2012.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, CME has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CME has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

CME is part of the Zacks Securities and Exchanges industry. Over the past month, Nasdaq (NDAQ), a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.

Nasdaq reported revenues of $1.39 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.4%. EPS of $0.96 for the same period compares with $0.76 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Nasdaq is expected to post earnings of $0.93 per share, indicating a change of +17.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Nasdaq. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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