Why Is Allstate (ALL) Down 1.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allstate (ALL). Shares have lost about 1.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allstate due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Allstate Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Property-Liability Unit Strength

Allstate reported a fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted net income of $14.31 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45.7%. The bottom line surged 86.6% year over year.

Operating revenues of $17.3 billion grew 3.4% year over year. However, the top line missed the consensus mark by 1.4%.

Allstate’s quarterly results benefited from higher property and casualty insurance premiums, improved net investment income and significantly lower catastrophe losses. A lower expense level and strong underwriting performance also contributed to the upside.

Key Takeaways From Allstate’s Q4 Results

Property and casualty insurance premiums improved 6.3% year over year to $15.5 billion. Net investment income of $892 million advanced 7.1% year over year on the back of a growing market-based portfolio. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $875 million and our estimate of $883 million. Market-based investment income rose 10.6% year over year to $804 million in the quarter under review.

Total costs and expenses came in at $12.4 billion, which decreased 11.6% year over year and came lower than our estimate of $15.2 billion. The year-over-year decline was due to decreased property and casualty insurance claims and claims expenses, accident, health and other policy benefits, and operating costs and expenses. Catastrophe losses of $209 million dropped 49% year over year. 

Allstate’s pretax income doubled year over year to $4.9 billion. 

As of Dec. 31, 2025, total policies in force were 210.9 million, up 3% year over year.

ALL’s Segmental Performances

The Property-Liability segment recorded premiums earned of $14.8 billion in the fourth quarter, which rose 6.1% year over year, attributable to increased auto and homeowners insurance average premiums and policies in force. However, the metric fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.9 billion and our estimate of $15 billion. Underwriting income in the unit more than doubled year over year to $4 billion. The underlying combined ratio of 76.6% improved 640 basis points year over year.

The Protection Services segment’s revenues advanced 3.1% year over year to $917 million, aided by Allstate Protection Plans and Roadside businesses. However, the metric lagged our estimate of $1 billion. Adjusted net income of $57 million improved 14% year over year.

Financial Update (As of Dec. 31, 2025)

Allstate exited the fourth quarter with a cash balance of $678 million, which fell 3.7% from the 2024-end level. Total assets of $119.8 billion increased 7.3% from the figure at 2024-end. 

Debt amounted to $7.5 billion, down 7.4% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2024. 

Total equity of $30.6 billion climbed 43.2% from the 2024-end level.

Book value per common share was $108.45 as of Dec. 31, 2025, up 49.9% year over year.

Capital Deployment Update

In 2025, Allstate rewarded more than $2.2 billion to shareholders via share buybacks and dividend payments. Management authorized a new share repurchase program of $4 billion, which will begin once the current $1.5 billion program is fully completed. This new program will be carried out over a 24-month period.

A quarterly dividend hike of 8% was also sanctioned. The increased dividend, amounting to $1.08 per share, will be paid out on April 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026.

ALL’s 2025 Figures

Allstate’s 2025 revenues of $67.7 billion rose 5.6% year over year. Full-year adjusted net income of $34.83 per share soared 90.1% year over year. Premiums earned in the Property-Liability unit advanced 7.1% year over year to $57.7 billion. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, Allstate has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Allstate has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Allstate belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry. Another stock from the same industry, American Financial Group (AFG), has gained 1.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

American Financial reported revenues of $2.02 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.7%. EPS of $3.65 for the same period compares with $3.12 a year ago.

American Financial is expected to post earnings of $2.58 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +42.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for American Financial. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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