Starbucks' Traffic Trends Improve: Is the Recovery Taking Shape?

Starbucks Corporation SBUX reported a notable improvement in customer traffic during first-quarter fiscal 2026, signaling a potential turning point after several quarters of soft store visits.

Global comparable-store sales increased 4% year over year, supported primarily by higher transactions rather than pricing. In the United States — Starbucks’ largest market — comparable sales also rose 4%, driven by a 3% increase in transactions and a modest 1% rise in average ticket. Importantly, the quarter marked the first U.S. transaction growth in eight quarters, highlighting improving customer engagement following a prolonged traffic slowdown.

The company credited the improvement to operational initiatives tied to its “Back to Starbucks” strategy, which focuses on enhancing the in-store experience, improving service speed and strengthening execution at the store level. A central component of this strategy is the Green Apron Service model, designed to increase staffing efficiency and deliver faster service. Early stores adopting the Green Apron Service model are showing encouraging customer feedback and operational improvements.

Digital engagement also remained a critical driver of visits. Starbucks Rewards membership reached a record 35.5 million active members in the United States, reinforcing the loyalty ecosystem that accounts for a significant portion of transactions. Management noted that transactions from both rewards and non-rewards customers increased year over year, marking the first such improvement in several years.

International markets also supported the traffic rebound. The company’s international segment posted 5% comparable sales growth, driven by transaction gains across several regions. China — Starbucks’ second-largest market — delivered 7% comparable sales growth, benefiting from product innovation, marketing initiatives and steady demand in delivery channels.

While the company continues to navigate cost pressures and ongoing investments in store operations, the return of transaction growth suggests that Starbucks’ focus on service improvements and customer experience may be beginning to translate into measurable demand recovery.

How Starbucks’ Traffic Trends Compare With Peers

Customer traffic trends across the restaurant and beverage industry remain uneven, with companies relying on different levers to drive visits. Compared with peers, Starbucks is now beginning to show improving transaction momentum after a period of softer demand.

For example, McDonald's Corporation MCD reported solid guest traffic performance in the fourth quarter of 2025. Global comparable sales increased 5.7%, supported by positive guest counts and higher average checks, with U.S. comparable sales rising 6.8%. Management attributed the strength to value-focused offerings, large-scale marketing campaigns and menu innovation, all of which helped drive steady customer visits despite a challenging consumer environment.

Meanwhile, Dutch Bros Inc. BROS, a fast-growing beverage chain, continues to deliver strong transaction-driven growth. The company reported 7.7% system same-shop sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, fueled by 5.4% transaction growth, reflecting strong demand for beverage innovation and increasing adoption of its Dutch Rewards loyalty program.

Against this backdrop, Starbucks’ return to positive transaction growth stands out because it follows eight consecutive quarters of declining U.S. transactions. While McDonald’s and Dutch Bros have maintained relatively steady traffic trends through value offerings, innovation and loyalty engagement, Starbucks’ recent improvement suggests its operational reset and service-focused initiatives may be starting to stabilize store visits.

SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Starbucks have declined 6.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 3.1%.

SBUX Stock’s One-Year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, Starbucks trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.85, below the industry’s average of 3.76.

SBUX’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 8.5%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have remained unchanged in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of SBUX Stock

Starbucks stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research