Cboe Introduces Innovative Prediction Markets Framework, Expanding Choice Beyond Yes-Or-No Outcomes

CHICAGO and BOCA RATON, Fla., March 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE), the world's leading derivatives and securities exchange network, today announced its vision for a new and innovative prediction markets framework that aims to redefine how people engage with outcome-based trading. Drawing inspiration from concepts in the traditional options markets, Cboe's new product suite will introduce a fresh approach that moves beyond the limitations of traditional binary event contracts.

Today's event contracts only offer two binary outcomes: "yes or no," "all or nothing." Cboe's prediction markets will introduce a third dimension – a new middle ground – enabling customers to engage with defined risk, while gaining the opportunity to earn a partial payout when they are directionally correct, even if the result is not precisely on their target.

Under Cboe's new proprietary and patent-pending framework, customers could participate in contracts that deliver three potential payout outcomes: a $0 payout, a partial payout within a defined "payout zone," or a full $100 payout. Cboe plans to offer this framework first through a Mini S&P 500 Index prediction market contract. This will allow traders to express their outlook on the U.S. equity market – such as where the S&P 500 Index (SPX) may close at the end of a trading day – by taking a traditional "yes" or "no" position, or by leveraging the added "payout zone" position to reduce potential losses and potentially benefit from being directionally correct without needing to make a perfect call.

"Our new prediction market contracts essentially take the mechanics of a traditional vertical spread – one of the most popular options strategies – and package them in an intuitive, accessible format for a broader audience," said JJ Kinahan, Head of Retail Expansion and Alternative Investment Products at Cboe. "These contracts will offer greater flexibility and clearly defined risk compared to traditional event contracts, along with the opportunity to earn a partial return when traders are directionally correct. Real-world opinions aren't always binary, and investors shouldn't be confined to a yes-or-no framework. Our more nuanced model is designed to reward informed perspectives – giving retail traders credit even when they are mostly right – and introduce an entirely new way for people to engage with outcome-based trading that simply doesn't exist today."

Cboe plans to launch its first Mini-SPX prediction market contract in the second quarter of 2026. The product will use a traditional options wrapper to deliver fixed-return outcome and settle in cash, similar to standard index options. This securities-based product will be listed on Cboe Options Exchange and centrally cleared by OCC.

In addition to enabling greater accessibility and participation in outcome-based trading, Cboe expects its new prediction market contract could also provide an entry point for people to enhance understanding, and over time, explore more advanced options strategies. At their core, options allow traders to express a view, potentially generate income, or manage risk around future events and the probability of different outcomes.

In 2025, vertical spread trades averaged nearly 580,000 contracts per day in 0DTE SPX options, underscoring rising retail demand for strategies that could benefit from directional market moves while limiting downside risk.

"There is clear customer demand to trade around market events tied to the S&P 500 Index, and our new SPX prediction market contracts will just make it easier for even more people to participate in that activity," said Rob Hocking, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. "What sets our products apart from other SPX event contracts is that ours are built directly on top of the SPX options ecosystem – one of the deepest and most liquid options markets in the world. This means that pricing is grounded in real market activity, and customers can benefit from the transparency, liquidity and safeguards of our regulated securities exchange. As the home of SPX options, Cboe is uniquely positioned to bring this product to market in a way that reflects the strength and integrity of the broader SPX ecosystem."

"We are proud to support continued innovation within the S&P 500 ecosystem. Cboe's planned prediction market contracts help new investors benefit from the market leading integrity, governance, and reliability of the S&P 500, within a simple and easy-to-access contract structure," said Cameron Drinkwater, Chief Product & Operations Officer at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"As the leader in retail options trading and a close partner of Cboe, we are pleased to see Cboe continue to innovate in the financial markets and look forward to continually enabling new instruments as we see the client demand," said James Kostulias, Head of Trading Services at Charles Schwab.

Cboe may extend its prediction market framework to offer more contracts on additional indices or stocks in the future.

About Cboe Global Markets

Cboe Global Markets (Cboe: CBOE) is a leading global markets operator with a long history of innovation in equity derivatives. Since launching the world's first listed options exchange in 1973, Cboe has pioneered landmark products, including the introduction of S&P 500® index options and the creation of the VIX® Index, the world's leading gauge of market volatility, reshaping how investors manage risk and access opportunity. Today, Cboe operates derivatives, equities, and FX markets, providing trading, clearing, and investment solutions for customers worldwide. To learn more, visit www.cboe.com.

CBOE-OE

Cboe^® and Cboe Global Markets^® are registered trademarks or service marks of Cboe Exchange, Inc. All other trademarks and service marks are the property of their respective owners.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (ODD). Copies of the ODD are available from your broker or from The Options Clearing Corporation, 125 S. Franklin Street, Suite 1200, Chicago, IL 60606.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. and its affiliates do not recommend or make any representation as to possible benefits from any securities, futures or investments, or third-party products or services. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. is not affiliated with S&P or the third-party sites referenced in this press release. Investors should undertake their own due diligence regarding their securities, futures, and investment practices. This press release speaks only as of this date. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. disclaims any duty to update the information herein.

Nothing in this announcement should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities or futures in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the laws of such jurisdiction. Nothing contained in this communication constitutes tax, legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security, future, or other financial product. Investors must consult their tax adviser or legal counsel for advice and information concerning their particular situation.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. and its affiliates make no warranty, expressed or implied, including, without limitation, any warranties as of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy, completeness or timeliness, the results to be obtained by recipients of the products and services described herein, or as to the ability of the indices referenced in this press release to track the performance of their respective securities, generally, or the performance of the indices referenced in this press release or any subset of their respective securities, and shall not in any way be liable for any inaccuracies, errors. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. and its affiliates have not calculated, composed or determined the constituents or weightings of the securities that comprise the third-party indices referenced in this press release and shall not in any way be liable for any inaccuracies or errors in any of the indices referenced in this press release.

There are important risks associated with transacting in any of the Cboe Company products discussed here. Before engaging in any transactions in those products, it is important for market participants to carefully review the disclosures and disclaimers contained at: https://www.cboe.com/us_disclaimers/.

Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as "may," "might," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "predict," "potential" or "continue," and the negative of these terms and other comparable terminology. All statements that reflect our expectations, assumptions or projections about the future other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and assumptions about us, may include projections of our future financial performance based on our growth strategies and anticipated trends in our business. These statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and projections about future events. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

We operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks and uncertainties emerge from time to time, and it is not possible to predict all risks and uncertainties, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

Some factors that could cause actual results to differ include: the loss of our right to exclusively list and trade certain index options and futures products; economic, political and market conditions; compliance with legal and regulatory obligations; price and new products and services competition and consolidation in our industry; decreases in trading or clearing volumes, market data fees or a shift in the mix of products traded on our exchanges; legislative or regulatory changes or changes in tax regimes; our ability to protect our systems and communication networks from security vulnerabilities and breaches; our ability to attract and retain skilled management and other personnel; increasing competition by foreign and domestic entities; our business and operational dependence on and exposure to risk from third parties; factors that impact the quality and integrity of our and other applicable indices; our ability to manage our global operations, growth, and strategic acquisitions, wind downs, divestitures, or alliances effectively; increases in the cost of the products and services we use; our ability to operate our business without violating the intellectual property rights of others and the costs associated with protecting our intellectual property rights; our ability to minimize the risks, including our credit, liquidity, market, investment, counterparty, and default risks, associated with operating our  clearinghouses; our ability to accommodate trading and clearing volume and transaction traffic, including significant increases, without failure or degradation of performance of our systems; misconduct by those who use our markets or our products or for whom we clear transactions; challenges to our use of open source software code; our ability to meet our compliance obligations, including managing our business interests and our regulatory responsibilities; the loss of key customers or a significant reduction in trading or clearing volumes by key customers; damage to our reputation; the ability of our compliance and risk management methods to effectively monitor and manage our risks; restrictions imposed by our debt obligations and our ability to make payments on or refinance our debt obligations; our ability to maintain an investment grade credit rating; impairment of our goodwill, long-lived assets, investments or intangible assets; the accuracy of our estimates and expectations; and litigation risks and other liabilities. More detailed information about factors that may affect our actual results to differ may be found in our filings with the SEC, including in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 and other filings made from time to time with the SEC.

We do not undertake, and we expressly disclaim, any duty to update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof.

SOURCE Cboe Global Markets, Inc.