Pre-Markets in the Red as Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

“May you live in interesting times,” goes the ancient curse. We start a new week of stock market challenges sinking again in the pre-market. The ongoing war in Iran is now in its second week with no signs of a peace deal; if anything, it threatens to expand and intensify — with oil prices the initial (non-human) victim.

Both WTI and Brent crude spot oil prices have spiked to over $100 per barrel (/bbl), up from around $55/bbl back in December of last year. WTI oil is currently +13% to $103/bbl, Brent is +12.8%, $104.50/bbl. Oil prices are now up +78% since the start of the year.

The stock market has also been victimized: the Dow is falling another -553 points at this hour, -1.16%. The S&P 500 is -71 points, -1.05%, while the Nasdaq is -281 points, -1.14%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 is down -44 points, -1.77%. Over the past month, major indexes have already fallen between -3.6% (Nasdaq) and -7.6% (Russell 2000).

Good News This Morning: HIMS & Novo Make a Deal

What a difference a month makes! This time, we mean it in a good way: on February 9, weight-loss drug giant Novo Nordisk (NVO) brought a lawsuit against health platform Hims & Hers (HIMS) for selling knockoff versions of its Ozempic and Wegovy weight-loss drugs. This morning, not only is Novo dropping the lawsuit, but it is partnering with Hims & Hers to sell legitimate versions of these drugs on their platform.

The result is a big +54% jump in HIMS shares (NVO is up +1%), swinging the platform’s stock into positive territory after a dismal -51% start to the trading year. Considering the headwinds we are seeing in the pre-market thus far this morning, this is a most impressive performance.

What to Expect from This Week’s Stock Market

Aside from parsing the destruction in the Middle East, we get two major economic reports on inflation this week: Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — delayed, from January — on Friday morning. CPI last reported a +2.4% Inflation Rate last time (among the coolest inflation metrics we’ve seen lately) and +2.5% on core (subtracting volatile food and energy prices). PCE last reported +2.9% year-over-year inflation, +3.0% on core.

Also, even though we’re through Q4 earnings season for all practical purposes, there are several meaningful earnings results expected this week. Oracle (ORCL) reports fiscal Q3 results Tuesday and Adobe (ADBE) and Dollar General (DG) putting out quarterly earnings on Thursday. Both Oracle and Adobe are expected to bring +15% earnings growth, while Dollar General is projected to come in -4% on earnings, but has outperformed on earnings and average of +23% over the past four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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