Rubrik Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Rubrik RBRK is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results in March 12.

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Rubrik expects revenues between $341 million and $343 million, indicating approximate growth of 33% year over year. Non-GAAP loss per share is expected to be between 12 cents and 10 cents.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $342.11 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 332.55%. The consensus mark for loss is pegged at 11 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. Rubrik reported a loss of 18 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Rubrik beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 89.53%.

Rubrik, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Rubrik, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Rubrik, Inc. Quote

Let us see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Key Factors to Consider for RBRK’s Q4 Earnings

Rubrik’s fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from its strong position in the growing cyber resilience market and the increasing demand for its data security solutions.

The company has consistently demonstrated robust subscription ARR growth. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the number of customers contributing more than $100K in subscription ARR reached 2,638, representing a 27% year-over-year increase. These large customers now account for 86% of Rubrik’s subscription ARR, up from 83% in the previous year. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the company expects a non-GAAP subscription ARR contribution margin of approximately 9%.

Rubrik’s ability to attract new customers and expand its footprint within existing accounts is a significant growth driver.  In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the company added a record 23 new customers with subscription ARR of $1 million or more, driving more than 50% growth in its $1 million subscription base. An average subscription dollar-based net retention rate of more than 120% indicates strong customer satisfaction and consistent expansion within RBRK’s existing customer base. This trend is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. 

Cloud ARR also saw strong growth, reaching $1,175 million, which represents a 53% year-over-year increase, driven by the adoption of its Rubrik Security Cloud platform. Rubrik’s innovations, such as the Identity Resilience platform and Rubrik Agent Cloud, are also expected to have played a pivotal role in the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

However, Rubrik suffers from stiff competition, which is a headwind. A substantial increase in operating expenses remains a concern. These factors are expected to have hurt the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Rubrik Benefits From Expanding Clientele

Rubrik’s expanding clientele, which includes major industry players such as Amazon’s AMZN cloud computing platform Amazon Web Services (AWS), CrowdStrike, and Microsoft, has been a key catalyst.

Rubrik’s collaboration agreement with Amazon’s AWS to improve cyber resilience has been noteworthy. This partnership combines Rubrik’s Preemptive Recovery Engine and Security Cloud with AWS’s secure infrastructure. It aims to help organizations recover from cyberattacks while safely accelerating enterprise AI adoption through Rubrik’s AI portfolio and Amazon Bedrock.

What Our Model Says

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the exact case here.

RBRK has an Earnings ESP of +10.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Micron Technology MU currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.69% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Micron Technology shares have surged 158.6% in the trailing six-month period. MU is scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on March 18. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Getty Images GETY currently has an Earnings ESP of +66.67% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Getty Images shares have lost 57.9% in the trailing six-month period. The company is scheduled to release the fourth quarter of 2025 results on March 16.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research