Lennar to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect This Season

Lennar Corporation LEN is slated to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on March 12, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9%, while total revenues beat the same by 2.7%. On a year-over-year basis, the metrics moved down 49.6% and 5.8%, respectively.

Lennar’s earnings surpassed estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining three occasions, with an average of 1.6%.

How are Estimates Placed for LEN Stock?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has moved up to 96 cents from 94 cents over the past 60 days. However, the estimated figure indicates a decline of 55.1% from earnings of $2.14 per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $6.83 billion, indicating a 10.5% decline from the year-ago figure of $7.63 billion.

Lennar Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Lennar Corporation price-eps-surprise | Lennar Corporation Quote

Factors Likely to Shape Lennar’s Q1 Results

Revenues

Lennar’s fiscal first quarter’s top-line performance is expected to have declined year over year because of lower home sales revenues. The United States’ housing market has been navigating weak homebuyers’ confidence due to fluctuating mortgage rates, lower income opportunities and lingering inflationary pressures. This ongoing market uncertainty is likely to have weighed down home sales volumes, with a lower average selling price (ASP) of home sales further pushing the revenues down. Per Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ranged between 6.19% and 5.98% between December 2025 and February 2026. Although the mortgage rates have moved down within the said time frame, homebuyers are still struggling with low job opportunities amid other macro risks concerning the housing market. 

For the fiscal first quarter, Lennar expects home deliveries between 17,000 units and 18,000 units, with ASP on homes delivered between $365,000 and $375,000. These values compare with 17,834 homes sold in the year-ago quarter at an ASP of $408,000.

Our model expects home deliveries for the quarter to be 17,480 units at an ASP of $371,430, indicating year-over-year declines of 2% and 9%, respectively. Besides, our model predicts Homebuilding revenues (contributed 94.9% to fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues) to decline 9.9% year over year to $6.56 billion.

Nonetheless, LEN’s technology-driven transformation efforts to unlock scalable efficiencies, reduce customer acquisition costs and modernize its entire operating model are expected to have eased the pressures to some extent in the fiscal first quarter. Also, its efforts to incentivize sales to enable affordability are expected to have driven new home order volumes and fostered consumer confidence.

Earnings & Margins

The company’s bottom line is expected to have weakened significantly during the fiscal first quarter compared with a year ago because of its increased incentive offerings and lower home delivery ASP implemented to boost sales volume. In a fluctuating mortgage rate scenario and lower household income opportunities, Lennar chose the path of sacrificing its margins to boost home delivery numbers, which is likely to have been adverse in the near term.

For the fiscal first quarter, Lennar expects the home sales gross margin to be between 15% and 16%, down from 18.7% reported a year ago. It also expects EPS in the range of 80 cents-$1.10 for the quarter to be reported.

Moreover, Lennar’s technology investments are likely to have put pressure on the margins as the near-term efficiency yielded from them is immaterial and represents a significant drag on operating leverage. Heightened investments, alongside higher marketing and selling expenses, are expected to have increased the selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses of the company in the quarter to be reported. Lennar expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales) to be approximately 9.5%, up year over year from 8.5%.

Orders & Backlog

Boosted by its sales incentives and other in-house efforts, Lennar laid out an expectation of new orders for the fiscal first quarter between 18,000 and 19,000, up from 18,355 reported a year ago. Our model predicts the same metric to be 18,674 units, reflecting 1.7% year-over-year growth.

We expect backlog units to be up 15.1% year over year to 15,130, with potential housing revenues up 1.9% to $5.88 billion.

What Our Model Unveils for Lennar

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lennar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

LEN’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

LEN’s Zacks Rank: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Few Construction Releases

EMCOR Group, Inc. EME reported impressive fourth-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increasing year over year.

EMCOR’s quarterly results reflect the benefits of strong demand in core end markets and customers’ confidence in its ability to deliver on complex projects. Strong field leadership, disciplined planning and continued investment in construction technology further supported the overall performance. EMCOR expects 2026 annual revenues to be in the band of $17.75-$18.5 billion and EPS within $27.25-$29.25.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. FIX delivered stellar fourth-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increasing year over year.

Comfort Systems’ quarterly performance reflects robust demand trends in the public infrastructure market, with strong growth in the technology sector, particularly in data centers. Besides, the company’s results benefited from the Feyen Zylstra, Meisner, Right Way, Century, Summit and J&S acquisitions, alongside increased same-store activity. In 2025, Comfort Systems paid its shareholders $217.9 million through share repurchases and $68.8 million through dividends.

Quanta Services, Inc. PWR reported record fourth-quarter 2025 results, driven by robust demand in its Electric Infrastructure Solutions segment and contributions from recent acquisitions.

Quanta’s growth was primarily fueled by accelerating utility investments, power generation and load-center related projects, along with incremental contributions from acquired businesses, including Tri-City, Wilson and Billings. For 2026, Quanta expects revenues between $33.25 billion and $33.75 billion, reflecting double-digit growth. GAAP EPS is projected to be in the range of $8.36-$9.06, while adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $12.65-$13.35. It is supported by record backlog, continued utility spending and anticipated contributions from recent acquisitions.

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