Live: Will AeroVironment (AVAV) Beat Q3 Earnings Tonight?

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AeroVironment Shares Down 1.7% Today 3 minutes ago Live

AeroVironment shares are down 1.7% headed into earnings today. That’s notable since other drone plays are up today. For example, Ondas (ONDS) is up 5.2% in late trading.

Many ‘momenum’ stocks have been outperforming in today’s trading as oil prices continue falling after briefly hitting $120 per barrel on Sunday night.

AeroVironment reports Q3 FY2026 earnings tonight after the bell, with the call scheduled for 4:30 PM ET. The defense drone maker sits at $223.83, down 6% year-to-date and well off its 52-week highs. Wall Street has been torn on Aerovironment recently with an upgrade from Raymond James causing a large sell-off. Let’s look at what’s at stake tonight.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts are looking for earnings of $0.69 per share on revenue of $475.65 million for the quarter. That would represent roughly 185% year-over-year revenue growth, almost entirely driven by BlueHalo’s contribution layered on top of organic growth in the legacy drone business.

Worth noting: AVAV has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with misses ranging from 6% to 58% below consensus. Analyst models have struggled to capture the integration noise, so the headline EPS number may matter less than what management says about the trajectory.

Last Quarter Recap

Last quarter was a tale of two stories. AVAV missed EPS badly, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.44 versus the $0.7375 consensus and GAAP EPS of -$.34, but the culprit was largely $48.2 million in non-cash purchase accounting charges from the BlueHalo deal. Revenue told a different story: $472.5 million, up 181.9% year-over-year.

The demand picture was genuinely impressive. Contract awards hit a record $3.5 billion ceiling value with a 2.9x book-to-bill ratio. Management raised the lower end of FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.95 billion to $2.0 billion. CEO Wahid Nawabi struck a confident tone: “AV is operating from a position of strength as evidenced by our record second quarter results, all-time high bookings and long-term contract wins.”

For more detail on that report, see our full breakdown at 247wallst.com.

Areas to Watch Tonight

• Gross margin trajectory: Gross margin compressed to 22% last quarter from 39% a year prior. Any sign of stabilization or recovery here would be a meaningful positive signal.
• SCAR contract risk: Raymond James downgraded AVAV to Underperform on March 2, citing recompetition for the Space Force SCAR program, a significant contract held by BlueHalo. Management commentary on this will be closely watched.
• FY2026 guidance: Management guided for roughly 45% of second-half revenue in Q3 and 70% of second-half EBITDA landing in Q4. Any shift in that split or changes to full-year guidance would move the stock.
• Recent contract wins as context: A $186 million Switchblade order on February 26 and a $97.4 million Army contract on March 6 both hit before this report, suggesting demand remains healthy heading into the print.
• CFO transition: CFO Kevin McDonnell announced his retirement effective July 31, 2026, adding a layer of uncertainty during a critical integration period. Expect analysts to probe succession plans on the call.

Seventeen analysts currently carry buy ratings on AVAV with an average price target of $355.17, implying roughly 59% upside from current levels. Watch for commentary on the company’s SCAR contract to dominate discussion in the analyst community tomorrow.