Airline Stock Facing Pre-Earnings Headwinds

Airline stocks are one of the many sectors hit by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, including United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UAL). Last seen down 2.6% at $99.17, the company is slated to report first-quarter earnings after the close tomorrow, April 21. Down 11% in 2026 and back below resistance at the 120-day moving average, options traders have been betting bullishly nevertheless.

Following each of its last eight reports, UAL has finished higher five times, including a 2.3% pop in January. The options market is pricing in 9% move for Wednesday's trading, much larger than the average 5.6% drop over the last two years.

UAL's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.87 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio ranks in the 78th annual percentile, so an unwinding of this optimism could add more pressure to the security. Echoing this, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.63 ranks in the 12th annual percentile.

The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) comes in at 24 out of 100. In other words, shares have consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in over the past 12 months, making UAL a premium selling candidate.