How Your Quantum Stock Faves Perform After Major Bull Gaps

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, May 24.

We’ve published several brief check-ins for the quantum computing sector this week, as the news cycle has been plentiful in providing catalysts for those betting on a continued rise in the segment. On Thursday the U.S. Department of Commerce awarded a funding grant worth $2 billion to nine quantum companies, including an equity stake in several.

Three names seeing the most attention have been D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), IonQ (IONQ), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), a group of pure-play quantum stocks that have left little to the imagination of their intentions. D-Wave and Rigetti have already penned letters of intent to secure $100 million in funding under CHIPS, signaling reassurance the sector will work to keep up with processor demand.

Peer IBM (IBM) has also been at the forefront of the quantum race, its head of research Jay Gambetta suggesting new processor designs are now expected annually. But how will this government backing and market volatility impact the quantum sector in the weeks and months ahead?

Thanks to the government funding boost, QBTS, IONQ, and RGTI settled Thursday with impressive session gains of 33.4%, 12.2%, and 30.1% respectively. Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative analyst took a look at how each of these quantum giants has tended to perform in the week, month, and three months, following similar bull gaps.

QBTS is continuing its climb with a second bear gap for Friday’s session, up nearly 20% at midday, flirting with $30 for the first time since January. Per White, since 2023 there has been eight times the stock has seen a session jump of 30% or more. Looking three months out the shares have averaged a 20.3% gain, finishing positive 75% of the time.

This suggests that from its current perch just above $30, D-Wave Quantum stock could be pushing the $40 threshold by the end of summer. QBTS is currently breaking out of a downward channel that began after the shares tapped a record high on Oct. 15, adding to its now healthy year-to-date gain of 18%.

IONQ is trading at the site of its October highs, Thursday pushing the shares back above the round $60 for the first time since November, now up 43% year-to-date. On Friday the quantum giant traded just shy of $65, and per White, has seen roughly 50 instances of surging above 10% since 2023, finishing higher 59% of the time three months out, averaging a gain of 37.6%. From its current perch, a surge of this magnitude would have IonQ stock back near $83 by the end of August – within a chip-shot of record-high territory.

Rigetti Computing stock has been no different, enjoying emerging support from both the 50-day moving average and an ascending trendline that began at the stock’s early April lows. Now trading at roughly $26, RGTI sports a 20% lead for 2026 and can expect to see even more gains, if past is precedent.

Per White’s data, similar to Thursday’s 30% pop, RGTI has seen 14 other instances of this magnitude since 2023, seeing a 50%-win rate three months out, with an average gain of 44.2% on the board. From its current area of $26, a surg of this stature would send RGTI just shy of $38 – an area that hasn’t seen a whiff of attention since early November.

Short sellers remain firmly in control for all three, as QBTS, IONQ, and RGTI sport floats of 14.6%, 22.6%, and 15.4%, respectively. At each stock’s average pace of trading, it would take short sellers roughly two or more days to buy back these bearish bets.

Options are still looking relatively affordable too, despite the breakout. Specifically, all three quantum behemoths sport a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) that sit in the roughly 30th percentile of all other readings from the past year.